Extreme Weather Events Becoming the New Norm

Across the globe, regions once considered safe from certain natural disasters are now experiencing them firsthand, a trend experts attribute to climate change and a collective failure to adapt. From unprecedented rainfall to wildfires in unexpected places, the familiar patterns of weather are rapidly changing.

Recent Extreme Weather Events Highlight Shifting Risks

Central Texas residents, who thought they were prepared after the deadly floods of 1987, were overwhelmed this month by horrific flash floods that killed over 100 people. Similarly, the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, before 2021, were hit by a killer heat wave, while Hawaii faced unexpected drought-fueled wildfires. Even inland North Carolina experienced the impact of hurricanes when the remnants of **Helene** blew in last year.

Climate Change Amplifies Extreme Weather

According to climate scientists and government data, climate change is increasing both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Yet, experts warn that individuals and governments are not adapting quickly enough to this new reality.

Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist at Princeton University, notes, “What happens with climate change is that what used to be extreme becomes average, typical, and what used to never occur in a human lifetime or maybe even in a thousand years becomes the new extreme. We start to experience things that just basically never happened before.”

NOAA’s climate extreme index, which monitors hurricanes, heavy rain, droughts, and temperature extremes, reveals a stark increase: the 10-year summer average is 58% higher than in the 1980s.

Despite these alarming trends, Oppenheimer argues that society isn’t responding with sufficient urgency. “There’s plenty of evidence that we sit there and do absolutely nothing while these risks are coming right at us like a moving railroad train and we’re standing in the tracks. And then all of a sudden, bam,” he said.

The Danger of Shifting Baselines and Normalcy Bias

Experts caution that our reactions to climate change can exacerbate the problem. **Marshall Shepherd**, a meteorology professor at the University of Georgia, explains that people often rely on past experiences with extreme weather to make decisions, leading to overconfidence even as storms intensify.

He uses the Texas flooding as an example. “That is flash flood alley. We know that floods happen in that region all the time. … I’ve already seen normalcy bias statements by people in the regions saying, well, we get flooding all the time,” **Shepherd** said, stressing that the recent rainfall was far from normal.

**Kim Klockow McClain**, an extreme weather social scientist at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, urges people to reconsider their understanding of disasters. “The message needs to be, if you’re used to some degree of nuisance flooding, every so often, look at what happened in Texas and realize that this is a shifting baseline,” she said.

Psychological Barriers to Preparedness

People often believe that catastrophic events won’t happen to them, a mindset that can hinder preparation efforts. **Susan Cutter**, co-director of the Hazards Vulnerability & Resilience Institute at the University of South Carolina, describes it as “sort of a psychological mechanism to protect us that it can’t happen to me.”

Moreover, surviving past events can create a false sense of security. **Lori Peek**, director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado, warns that “just because I’ve lived through a fire or a flood or a hurricane or a tornado, that does not mean that the next time is going to look like the last time.”

Lagging Adaptation and Infrastructure

Scientists warn that our ability to prepare for and respond to extreme weather is not keeping pace with the increasing risks. A 2023 report by the American Society of Civil Engineers gave U.S. infrastructure a grade of C-, highlighting the urgent need for modernization to withstand climate impacts (American Society of Civil Engineers).

**Peek** notes that “infrastructure is aging in our country and is more vulnerable given the fact that there are just simply, as a matter of fact, more people living in harm’s way. As our population has continued to rise, it’s not only that we have more people in the country, it’s also that we have more people living in particularly hazardous areas like our coastal areas.”

The Trump Administration’s mass layoffs and planned cuts to agencies responsible for climate research and disaster response, such as FEMA and NOAA, could further compromise the nation’s ability to cope, experts said.

**Oppenheimer** warns, “We’re destroying the capability we have that we’re going to need more and more in the future.”

**Peek** concludes that the country must prepare for worst-case scenarios rather than relying on past experiences. “This is our future,” **Peek** said. “It’s obvious that we’re living into a future where there are going to be more fires and floods and heat waves.”