The Limits of Airpower: Why Airstrikes Alone Cannot Defeat Iran
Israel and the United States have sustained a campaign hitting thousands of Iranian targets, systematically destroying much of the country’s military infrastructure and killing many of its top leaders while Iran has survived and maintained significant offensive capabilities. Despite controlling the skies and executing punitive bombing campaigns, the U.S. and Israeli strategy has failed to force political capitulation or break the regime’s core staying power.
The Limits of Air Supremacy Against Decentralized Regimes
For decades, air supremacy has served as the defining tenet of Western military strategy. The United States perfected airpower to win control of skies and bomb enemy territories at will, yielding impressive results when pitted against deployed ground forces. Yet foreignaffairs.com noted that few historical examples exist of adversaries conceding to maximalist demands from bombing campaigns alone. Operation Epic Fury joins a list of conflicts—including Russia’s war in Ukraine and international responses to Houthi threats in Yemen—that expose the severe policy limits of relying heavily on airstrikes to unseat governments or defeat insurgent forces.
Historical precedents underline this persistent shortfall. During World War II, Nazi Germany fought until the end despite systematic Allied bombing of cities, industrial bases, and transport networks. In the Korean War, North Korea fought to a standstill while U.S. bombers obliterated cities and infrastructure. In Afghanistan and Iraq, total air superiority gave allied troops massive combat advantages, but ultimately failed to secure long-term political objectives against adversaries relying on asymmetric tactics and safe havens.
International Support Mitigates Damage for Targeted Nations
Geopolitical realities in a multipolar world order complicate modern strike campaigns. foreignaffairs.com reported that international support frequently mitigates damage for targeted nations. In Ukraine, Western military and economic assistance has kept the economy functioning and allowed forces to replace lost equipment despite daily Russian barrages. Russia has simultaneously supplied intelligence targeting U.S. forces in the Gulf and assisted in developing supersonic antiship missiles.
Iran's physical military assets remain largely shielded. Most remaining ballistic missile stocks and production capacities reside in deeply buried underground “missile cities” out of reach of conventional munitions. Following U.S. airstrikes in June 2025 targeting nuclear infrastructure with 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs, Iran dispersed its highly enriched fissile material and movable equipment well before Operation Epic Fury began.
When Airpower Succeeds on the Battlefield
Air superiority has nonetheless proven decisive when objectives require an enemy to field conventional forces in the open. foreignaffairs.com highlighted Operation Desert Storm in 1991, where the initial air campaign degraded Iraqi command and control, enabling coalition ground forces to defeat the Iraqi army in less than 100 hours. NATO’s 1999 intervention in Kosovo and the 2011 European-led campaign against Muammar al-Qaddafi’s forces in Libya similarly destroyed exposed tanks and artillery, rendering enemy ground offensives untenable.
The fundamental dividing line rests on adversary objectives. When an enemy seeks to seize territory or crush uprisings using deployed armor and artillery, air superiority makes those forces sitting ducks. When an adversary requires no open military display—relying instead on underground facilities, internal police repression, and dispersed coastal launch positions—punitive air campaigns alone stall out.