xau / usd

Main

• The trading week on the Russian foreign exchange market ends with the ruble overweight: foreign currencies have lost more than a percent since last Friday. There was much more, but so far buyers of the dollar, euro and yuan are resisting.

• On the Russian debt market, OFZ prices are rising, their yields are falling, and the government bond index RGBI: 119.7 points has updated its October highs, where it was before the sharp increase in the Central Bank rate to 15%. In market assessments, tough monetary policy has reached its peak.

• On the global foreign exchange market, the dollar also fell relative to world currencies amid ambiguous comments from the Fed – market participants doubted the regulator’s determination to further increase the key rate, and this is positive for risky assets and negative for the US national currency. US bond yields also fell, another positive for stocks.

• The commodity market is again above $87, the idea of ​​buying out local drawdowns continues to be justified. closes the week with minor losses, but the quote at $1990 after a record rally of +10% indicates the stability of the upward trend. NG gas ends the trading period above $3.5/Mmbtu; the target for the coming weeks remains at $3.7.

In detail

The global US dollar fell by a percentage point from a weekly peak – this is a lot for the main funding currency; DXY, reflecting the dynamics of the American against a basket of other world currencies, after the Fed’s decision, dropped from 107 p. to 106 p. The euro quickly took advantage of this, and the pair: 1.064 bounced from the minimum by the same percentage. The reason for the change in currency sentiment lies in the interpretation of the results of the Central Bank meeting – probably, the peak of a tight monetary exchange rate is already close.

The dynamics of the international debt market are associated with the same monetary factor from the Federal Reserve – US government bond rates fell sharply, from under 5% they plunged to 4.65%. The further trajectory of DXY and UST will also depend on Friday’s employment statistics for October – a sharp decline is expected. The cooling of the labor market is positive from the point of view of inflation and the likelihood of an approaching Fed monetary reversal.

The same laws apply in the Russian debt market as in the global financial world – tightening by the Central Bank leads to sales of bonds, and their yields rise. But the government bond index has been rallying for a week now: it rebounded from the annual bottom by about 2.5% – at its minimum the index was below 117.3, and now it is above 119.7 points.

In fact, the securities in the index returned to the levels when the Central Bank’s key rate was 13%. But it’s already 15%. There is a certain inefficiency. In reality, this means that in our country, market participants are waiting for the end of the rate hike cycle from the Central Bank and are buying bonds for the future now, while fixing high yields.

The Russian ruble ends the fourth week in a row with strengthening against all currencies. Since the peak of foreign exchange, which was a month ago, the ruble has recovered over 10%. At important levels we see spikes in volatility – buyers and sellers of foreign currencies are trying to measure their strength, but still some advantage remains for the participants in strengthening the ruble.

We are, of course, talking about the factors of the rigid cycle of the Central Bank and the standards for the return of revenue from abroad to the Russian foreign exchange market. These factors continue to play for the ruble. Many may not have expected such agility from the ruble. But our estimates have remained unchanged in recent weeks: the abnormal rise of currencies in early October against the backdrop of a supply shortage and increased demand was temporary, and as soon as the Central Bank suppressed demand and regulations expanded supply, the ruble sharply returned to its fair levels. Let’s remember that this is 90.

The technical target for October was 92.5. This level has been tested many times in recent days, pierced and bounced off, but so far the dollar has not been able to gain a foothold under it. Today the couple was once again under the principle level, but again did push-ups.

The strength of the level may be tested many more times in the coming weeks. Nevertheless, the pattern of downward currencies and a strengthening of the ruble has not yet outlived itself, which means there is no point in changing the point of view. Even with the increased volatility of trading, we still expect to see the dollar exchange rate at 90 by the end of autumn.

2023-11-03 12:36:00
#Dollar #fell #squeezed #Investing.com

Main

• The rebound of the dollar, euro, and yuan from important support levels quickly faded away. On the agenda is the risk of foreign currency movement to the lows of the month with all that it entails.

• The global US dollar remains stable at highs, while European and Asian currencies continue to trade at lows. International government bond rates are also in no hurry to decline, and bond yields are one step away from 16-year highs. And all this a day before the Fed meeting.

• The volatility of the commodity market is increased, the factor of Middle Eastern geopolitics dominates in the commodities course. Brent oil, gold and NG gas, with the next aggravation in the international arena, can rewrite the annual highs.

In detail

The global US dollar is stable a day before the two-day Fed meeting on the rate, and this is a factor against the recovery of currencies from the global reserve basket, and, in fact, are still trading at the lows of the year. The likelihood of the US Central Bank maintaining a high funding rate for a long time is significant. DXY remains in the area of ​​106.5 points. A reversal of the currency trend is possible only with signals of a weakening of the Fed monetary policy.

On the commodity market, futures move from side to side, but the upward trend for all instruments prevails.

Oil, after Friday’s lightning-fast jump to $90.5, this morning reached $89, and is again rising to the round mark. Gold updated five-month highs, and covered all previous losses in a month, and an ounce was almost $2010, now it’s retreating to around $2000. NG gas immediately jumped to $3.65/Mmbtu, but is already correcting below $3.35.

Let us keep in mind that an escalation of the conflict can immediately inflate prices on the commodity market for the designated futures in the direction of their annual highs.

The US stock market, having hit five-month lows, is in a rebound. The guidelines were in the premarket. Index futures rise to 0.7%, driving a near percentage point rebound in European equity indices. The Russian market is growing within half a percent, and here the currency factor is putting pressure – the strengthening of the ruble is now preventing exporters from growing.

On Monday morning, the Russian ruble experienced short-term weakness, rose above 94.3, was above 99.6, and reached 12.85. But they did not have enough strength for more, and foreign currencies have not yet been able to develop Friday’s rebound from the monthly bottom. The dollar is already at 93, the euro is slightly higher than 98.5, the yuan is back at 12.7. Our morning assessments have so far been confirmed.

The Central Bank immediately raised the rate to 15% due to the acceleration, but it was the devaluation that made a significant contribution to the acceleration of prices. The private sector and corporations began to shift gloomy devaluation sentiments onto inflation expectations. Therefore, now we need to curb currency risks, and this alone can reduce fears and slow down consumer activity. Moreover, a high rate should lead to an increase in the cost of lending for import transactions, and increase the attractiveness of ruble assets compared to foreign ones.

Also, October 30 is the last day for payment of the single export tax, which was postponed due to the weekend from the 28th. As the tax period passes, this factor will supposedly disappear from the ruble drivers, but there are also standards for the mandatory sale of exporters’ proceeds, and they will be in effect for another six months.

From a technical point of view, the resistance area just below 94.5 in the pair remained stable, and the expected downward rebound took place again. The fundamental level for the dollar, and the dynamics of all other currencies is tied to this, is still 92.5.

The important level is a little more than half a percent, and if the support does not hold, and, moreover, the daily close is below the important level, then an impulse may take place in the direction of the desired 90. Other currencies will follow the American. And this is still the basic scenario for the fall.

2023-10-30 13:00:00
#Dollar #rebound #failed #Investing.com

The price has been trading on a horizontal range for the past three years. This situation looks boring (and pullbacks are painful) for the bulls.

Quarterly chart of gold prices

May the peace, blessings, and mercy of God be upon you

I don’t care about being the richest man in the world as much as I care about going back to bed in the evening feeling like I’ve done something wonderful. Steve Jobs

Praise be to God, Lord of the Worlds, who achieved with us the three ascending goals of 1951, 1969, and 1986 by achieving the conditions mentioned in the previous analysis. We mentioned that the level of the main descending channel, the highest at 1933, is very, very important, and breaking it means that the path is clear for gold to reach the relative level at 1969. Gold was also able to break the relative level to be The target for gold is at the 2001 level, as we mentioned in the previous analysis.

Gold formed a weekly bottom at the 1908 level, after which it formed a peak at the 1997 level and a weekly close at the 1981.5 level.

The average daily price movement last week was exactly the same as the previous week at 0.741%.

In such a case, when the kinetic rate matches, a violent upward force always occurs, and this is what is called in algebra (the greatest common multiplier), especially if the situation in the Middle East continues as it is.

This is on the technical level for last week

At the level of inverse and direct relationships according to the law of price elasticity of demand

1-A wholesale rise in US Treasury bond futures yields, as they rose

US02Y. 0.019%

US05Y.         0.221%

US10Y. 0.306%

US20Y.         0.323%

US30Y.         0.327%

According to the equation between bond futures yields and gold prices

The 2059 level is very, very important for gold this week

The parallel price will be at the 2023 level

2- An increase last week of 0.192%

According to the equation between oil prices and gold prices

The 2006 level is very, very important for gold this week

The parallel price will be at the 1969 level

3- Decrease by 0.0423%

According to the equation between the dollar index and gold

The 2023 level is very, very important for gold this week

The parallel price will be at the 1989 level

As for the basic level of last week

1- The war and its repercussions are the main driver of gold and oil prices and the decline of indices in general.

2- The speech of Uncle Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, had an impact

A- Geopolitical tensions directly pose major risks to the US economy.

B- Monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve could have a negative impact on banks, companies, and the economy in general

T- The inflation rate is still very high and far from the Fed’s target.

C- Labor markets lose their strength with the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening.

Through what Uncle Powell mentioned, most analysts confirmed that the Fed will not resort to raising the interest rate in the next stage, but there is a contradiction between Powell’s speech and the committee meeting two weeks ago, where a third of the committee members confirmed their agreement to raise the interest rate in the meeting scheduled for November 1st. Current year. The data and reports up to that time make us guess whether there will be an upcoming hike or whether the Federal Reserve will fix the interest rate at the current rate.

We have big news this week

1-New home sales

2- A speech by Uncle Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve

3-Gross domestic product on a monthly basis

4- Durable goods orders on a monthly basis

5- Pending home sales on a monthly basis

6- The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision (a slight impact on metal markets, but it has a direct impact on everything related to the euro)

Conclusion in technical analysis

Gold breaking the 2006 level, which is the resulting level according to the law of price elasticity of demand, and holding a daily candle above it will be bullish targets.

2023

2041

2059

However, if gold is able to break the 1969 level, which is the relative level of gold, and a daily candle remains stable below it, the targets will be bearish.

1952

1933

1913

1894

A very, very important note: If there is a calm in the Middle East, watch for a very strong bearish explosion this week that could reach $150.

This analysis is a personal opinion and has nothing to do with a buy or sell recommendation

You can follow the daily movement on my cases using the numbers mentioned in my profile

Finally, advice to all friends and followers

Trading is a craft like any other craft that has foundations, rules and conditions. You cannot make profits from it simply by pressing the buy or sell button, or taking recommendations from channels and walking among the herd, if you are not familiar with all its details and know very well who you will enter into the deal and where you will exit it. Whether it is profit or loss, to read the news well, to be familiar with all market movements over the long and short time, to know well what technical analysis is, to have cool nerves, and to be firm in managing capital regardless of its size.

My advice to you, my dear brother, is to get out of this field with the least possible loss that could affect your financial, health, and social life at the same time, especially for people who spend their years in this field.

Good week everyone

Support and resistance levels for this week on the daily basis We confirmed that gold is rising strongly to these levels