Analysis of the Potential Saudi-Israel Normalization โฃDeal &โ Trump‘s Role
This article details the complex dynamics surrounding โa potential normalization deal between Saudi โArabia and Israel, and the role former President Trump is playing โin attempting to facilitate it. Here’s aโ breakdown of the key takeaways:
1. Shifting Middleโ East โDynamics & Trump’s Optimism:
* Trump believes โa window for peace hasโ opened. He attributes thisโค to the weakening of Iran and its proxies (in Gaza,Lebanon,and โคYemen) due โto recent conflicts and US strikes on Iran’s nuclearโฃ program.
* He sees this as a prime โคpossibility โคfor Saudi Arabia and Israel to move towards normalization.
* He jokinglyโ downplayed any โlobbying efforts during โa recent speech with Saudi Ambassador Princess Reema Bandar Al Saud.
2. the Core Obstacle: Palestinian Statehood
* Saudi Arabia insists on a clear path to โคPalestinian statehood as a prerequisite for โnormalizing relations with Israel. This creates a tension with Trump’s โoptimism.
* Trump needs to demonstrate support for aโ Palestinian state to sway Crownโฃ Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) towards normalization. Experts believe โthis is key to his success.
3. Challenges to Progress:
* The ongoing devastation inโข Gaza: โโ Images ofโ suffering are โฃa major obstacle, making it politically tough for MBS to moveโค forward.โ Rebuilding Gazaโข will be a long andโข arduous โคprocess.
* Unresolvedโข issuesโ in Gaza: Disarming โHamas, establishingโฃ security forces, and creatingโค a post-Hamas governance structure โขare all potential flashpoints.
* Israeli settler violence in the West Bank: thisโ fuels regional distrust and complicates the โsituation.
4. saudi Arabia’s Wish List & Potential Dealbreakers:
* Securityโฃ guarantees: โฃMBS seeks formal assurances of US military protection for Saudi Arabia.
* F-35 Fighter Jets: โ Saudi Arabia โwants to purchase theseโ advanced โaircraft.
* F-35 Deal unlikely (for now): The White House is hesitant to approve the saleโฃ due to:
โ * Maintaining Israel’s “Qualitative Militaryโ Advantage”: The โUS doesn’t want to weaken Israel’s military superiority.
โข * Technology Transfer โto China: Concerns โexist โขthat the F-35 technology could fall into Chinese hands, given China’s โขclose ties with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
5. Leverage & Strategy:
* MBS’s price for normalization has increased following the events in Gaza.
* Experts advise Trump not to concede leverage. Tying the F-35 sale to normalization and a lasting transformation in Saudi-israel relations is seenโค as crucial.
In essence,the article โขpaints a picture of โaโ delicate and complex negotiation. While Trump sees an opportunity,โ notable hurdles remain, particularly regarding the Palestinian issue andโ the potential for a fighter jet deal. His success hinges on convincing MBS that supporting a Palestinian state is worthwhile โขand maintaining โleverage in negotiations.
