First Flurries Forecast: New York Braces for a Mild, Below-Average Snowfall Winter
New York, NY – New Yorkers can expect a largely dry and sunny start to winter, with minimal snowfall anticipated in November and a generally below-average accumulation predicted for the 2025-2026 season, according to meteorological forecasts. While the state prepares for colder temperatures, the amount of snow will vary significantly across different regions.
Currently, the probability of accumulated snow in New York during November is very low, with an average of only 1.8 centimeters (approximately 0.7 inches) expected for the entire month. Meteorologists predict only one day with light snowfall mixed with rain, and no significant snow coverage is anticipated. The atmosphere will be cold but generally dry and sunny, with scattered flakes possible but no persistent white blanket expected.
Looking ahead to the full winter season, snowfall will range dramatically across New York State. the New York City metropolitan area and Long Island, along with Western New York, are forecast to experience milder conditions and below-average snowfall. Historically, the NYC area averages 25 to 31 inches of snow annually, but accumulations can reach as high as 95 to 127 inches in the western and central parts of the state.
The old Farmer’s Almanac specifically predicts a colder-than-normal winter with below-average snowfall for the Southern Tier region.Cities in the northern and central areas, such as Syracuse – which recorded 115.4 inches of snow last year – are still expected to receive the largest accumulations, though near-normal precipitation levels are anticipated.