US inflation

Ms. Rung Sanguanruang, Director of Global Markets Business Promotion and Regulatory Department Bank of Ayudhya revealed to Nation Online that Thai baht next week It is expected to move within the range of 33.90-34.70 baht per dollar. The downward trend continues. Track US First Quarter GDP Results of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting on the Thai economy in March. and personal consumption expenditure in March of the US or PCE inflation which the US Federal Reserve or The Fed is commonly used as a measure of inflation.

Regional currency movements April 1 – April 21, found that the peso-Philippines weakened the most. 2.95%, followed by won – South Korea 2.06% Ringgit-Malaysia 0.50% Dollar-Taiwan 0.48% Baht-Thailand 0.35% Dollar-Singapore 0.15% Yuan-China 0.13% Dong-Vietnamese 0.08% except Rupiah-Indonesia appreciated 1.01% Rupee-Indian appreciated 0.03% However, this April, foreign investors Net sales in stocks 5.1 billion baht and Thai bonds and 41 billion baht

As for the bigger picture, the market believes that the Fed will raise interest rates one more time at the May 2-3 meeting to a range of 5.00-5.25% and is likely to be the last hike of this cycle. Therefore, if the US data comes out higher or lower than expected, it will affect bond yields or bond yields. Expectations of Fed interest rates and the currency, with the dollar likely to gain support (baht weakening), if data indicates that the Fed may have to hold the interest rate rather than cut it in the second half of the year.

Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, Analyst at Trading Room Krung Thai Bank revealed to Nation Online that looking at the baht frame next week, 34.15 – 34.65 baht per dollar, expectedbahtIt tends to move sideways up or gradually weaken. After the baht was able to stabilize above the 50-day EMA line at 34.30 baht per dollar. In addition, technically, both RSI and MACD indicate that the baht is likely to fluctuate and depreciate.

As for external factors that affect the value of the baht, it is seen that is in accordance with the direction of bothdollar and gold price which must keep an eye on the adjustment of market players’ views on the outlook of the Fed’s monetary policy. through US economic data reports Especially PCE inflation and US GDP in the first quarter of this year.

Recently, market players have begun to increase the opportunity for the Fed to continue raising interest rates and not rushing to cut interest rates. such until the September meeting)

In addition, investors should be wary of volatility in the financial markets during the gradual acknowledgment of the results of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, in which the market will wait for the BOJ to signal monetary policy adjustments, especially Yields Curve Control (YCC). No, and more importantly, the atmosphere in financial markets can fluctuate according to the earnings reports of listed companies.

As for domestic factors, we need to keep an eye on the fund flow direction of foreign investors in both stock and bond markets. to pay dividends to foreign investors This may be a factor to pressure the baht to depreciate to some extent. (The dividend transaction flow during the last week of April is expected to be no less than $320 million.)

while US data Market players will pay attention to the US economic data report. Including reports on the results of all listed companies. Interesting economic data reports will consist of 1. PCE inflation report 2. US economic growth report. in the first quarter of 2023 and 3. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

As for Europe, the market will wait to assess the European economic outlook through German Business Confidence Index (Ifo Business Climate) for April and Eurozone Economic Growth Report in the First Quarter of 2023

on the Asian side The main highlight will be at The result of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, which will be the first meeting of the new BOJ governor. In addition, market players will assess the outlook for the Japanese economy. through important economic data reports such as retail sales and industrial production, including employment conditions, etc. Market players will wait for the report on imports and exports (Imports & Exports).