US election 2024

Ten years later and leaving behind a “resurrected” NATO, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg hands over the baton of Secretary General to the former Prime Minister of the Netherlands on October 1st Mark Rutte, who leaves the European saloons for the sake of the North Atlantic with the promise to breathe new life into his new post.

“Stoltenberg has been in this role for ten years, which means a long time in very stressful conditions. I think that, by all accounts, he has done an exceptionally good job of managing Alliance policy which, under the circumstances, was not an easy thing to do – multiple American administrations, different perspectives. NATO does everything by consensus and managing that consensus is never easy. So the Allies sought a new leader also by consensus. There was an interest in finding someone who could perform that role effectively.” says in “Vima” o Ian Lesserpolitical analyst, adviser to the president of the German Marshall Fund and head of the GMF in Brussels.

For the former commander of NATO’s military forces in Europe James StavridisRutte is a “strong successor”. As he says in “Step”, “While Stoltenberg will be missed, Rutte also has all the necessary skill packages. He is thoughtful, known and liked throughout Europe, highly communicative and a solid strategic thinker. I worked with him extensively when I was a military commander in NATO and he was the prime minister of the Netherlands.”

What Stoltenberg leaves behind

In 2019, the French president Emmanuel Macron had described NATO as “brain dead”. Five years earlier, in 2014, Russia’s invasion of Crimea and its annexation had failed to rouse the Allies. In July of that year, at the Wales Summit, only three Allies (Greece, USA, UK) had met the required 2% of GDP defense spending target, with the then newly elected Stoltenberg taking over an Alliance that seemed to be “ in torpor.” At the time of his departure, the 2% target had been met by 23 of the 32 NATO allies. According to a NATO source, “Stoltenberg had to fight because for decades the Allies underinvested under the pretext that there was no security threat.” He emphasizes the key role played by the outgoing Secretary General in the “transformation of NATO”.

“I don’t think anyone would make the comment that Macron made about a brain-dead NATO today. The world has changed. NATO has taken on a much more obvious role in European security in a very direct way. Above all, NATO has become not just a kind of military operational alliance, but also a place where key strategic decisions are discussed and taken.” Lesser points out.

Stoltenberg’s successes include handling the crisis that erupted with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, handling the war in Ukraine, expanding NATO and making cyber security among the major issues to be addressed.

“Stoltenberg has been effective for a decade. Particularly notable was his response during the turmoil both under the presidency of Donald Trump and over the invasion of Ukraine.” emphasizes Stavridis.

The crucial American election

The change in NATO leadership comes a month before the US election. On the one hand there is “concern” in NATO circles about the possibility of Trump’s re-election, on the other hand it is pointed out that “the attitude of the USA in NATO is not going to change”.

Lesser estimates that if he wins Kamala Harris, “continuity will be largely ensured. Clearly, a second Trump term would be different. He was very critical of NATO, the Allies, their defense spending and commitments. But I don’t believe a Trump administration would pull the US out of NATO. Alliance politics may make it difficult, but I don’t see the US abandoning the NATO connection in any meaningful way. NATO is very important and very much to the benefit of the US today.”

No one should forget, as NATO circles emphasize, that whatever the intentions of the respective Secretary General, “in NATO, the Americans play ball, so it dances to the rhythm of the Americans.” The Americans are primarily focused on the power gained by China, which is seen as Washington’s equal adversary and thus, despite the fact that it is not in the Alliance’s sphere of action, has the means to penetrate NATO’s interests.

Rutte’s personal relationships are key

Beijing is accused of supplying Moscow with critical components for the Russian war machine. Speaking to the BBC, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken emphasized that these components “they are used to help Russia build more ammunition, tanks, armored vehicles, missiles,” adding that about 90% of the microelectronics Russia imports comes from China.

Rutte, who takes over as NATO Secretary General from Tuesday, is ready to invest in personal relationships to promote the goals of the Alliance, since, as sources in Brussels say, this is considered among other things to be his strong card, while it remains to be seen if, having been prime minister of the Netherlands for 14 years and knowing the European goings-on, he will manage to bring NATO and the EU closer together, with Turkey, which has traditionally had absolutely friendly relations with The Hague, not too warm to such a direction since it is a member of NATO but not of the EU.