Major U.S. stock indexes opened higher on Monday (8th) as most large-cap stocks rose. However, rising bets that the U.S. central bank may delay an interest rate cut this year and rising U.S. bond yields limited gains in major stock indexes.
before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagerose more than 100 points or nearly 0.3%,Nasdaq Composite Indexrose more than 10 points or nearly 0.1%,S&P 500 Indexrose nearly 0.1%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index rose nearly 0.1%.
Global bonds fell and stock markets mostly fluctuated slightly, as traders lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts in the face of the resilience of U.S. economic data. Exchange rates suggest the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by around 60 basis points this year, so the most likely outcome is two rate cuts. On Friday, the probability of three interest rate cuts was still above 50%.
It’s a busy week for investors, including U.S. inflation data, the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and the start of first-quarter earnings. U.S. employment data released on Friday exceeded expectations for the fifth consecutive month, supporting the Fed’s view of being patient about cutting interest rates. The next key moment for the market is the consumer price data (CPI) released on Wednesday (10th), which is expected to show further evidence of a gradual cooling of the economy.
Madison Faller, global investment strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, said: “The risk does exist, and seeing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continue to exceed 5% indicates that the market believes that a rate increase is more likely. However, as long as Investors think the next move is to cut interest rates, and they should be able to weather this transition.”
JPMorgan’s Faller said the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in June, but another rise in CPI may delay a rate cut. As for the European Central Bank, no major action is expected, but the confirmation that interest rates will be adjusted starting in June will be significant.
Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock, said: “We still think a rate cut is likely in June, although last Friday’s very strong jobs report makes it more controversial. We are talking about the labor market not only being tight, but also And itโs pretty strong.โ
Following the release of March inflation data midweek, market focus will turn to the start of the first-quarter corporate earnings season, with JPMorgan (JPM-US), Citigroup (C-US) and Wells Fargo (WFC-US) will release its financial report on Friday (12th).
On the energy front, international oil prices fell from a five-month high after Israel said it would withdraw some troops from Gaza.Crude oil prices have rebounded recently, lifting global benchmarks amid rising geopolitical tensions and supply shocksBrent crude oilThe prospect of prices reaching triple digits and clouding the outlook for inflation.
Lizzy Galbraith, political economist at Abdrn Plc, said: “At this time, we expect the conflict to continue over the coming months without a major impact, but the risk remains high and we are monitoring the situation closely.”
As of 22:00 Taipei time on Monday (8th): Focus stocks:
Tesla (TSLA-US) shares rose 4.29% to $171.98 per share in early trading
As Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest continues to buy Tesla’s falling shares this year, the electric car maker is expected to regain its position as the top holding of the stock goddess’s flagship fund. ARK’s daily trading data shows that since December, its flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK-US) purchased more than 2.3 million shares of Tesla stock, raising its weighting to about 9.6%, second only to Coinbase, the current largest holding.COIN-US) of 9.86%. It is worth noting that Tesla has fallen by more than 33% since the beginning of the year.
Alibaba (BABA-US) shares rose 0.63% to $72.11 per share in early trading
According to multiple media reports on Monday (8th), Alibaba will reduce the price of cloud service products to international customers from the United States to Singapore by up to 59%. The second round of product fee reductions so far suggests competition is intensifying.
Netflix(NFLX-US) shares fell 0.80% in early trading to $631.12 per share
Netflix received a price target increase from Wall Street, with one analyst praising the company as a “winner in the streaming wars.” Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak issued a report on Friday, raising Netflix’s price target from $700 to $765 per share and maintaining a “buy” rating, arguing that he is optimistic about Netflix’s subscriber numbers and average revenue per user this year and beyond. (ARPU) forecasts are higher. Wall Street analysts have a price target of $615.67, according to FactSet.
Todayโs key economic data:
none
Wall Street analysis:
Morgan Stanley said in a recent report that a review of historical data showed the biotech sector had been outperforming the broader market in the months leading up to the first rate cut, then underperformed for about a month. Shortly thereafter, stock prices began to climb again, with appreciation in the industry typically ranging from 20% to 30% over the next six to 12 months. The bank said it expects the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in June, and to cut interest rates a total of four times in 2024, by 25 basis points each time.
2024-04-08 13:48:36
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