Thailand Faces Political Uncertainty Following Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s Resignation
bangkok, Thailand – Thailand is navigating a period of political instability following the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, triggered by a controversy surrounding leaked telephone conversations. the situation has raised concerns about potential political upheaval, including the possibility of another military coup.Paetongtarn, who was suspended prior to formally resigning, maintained that his earlier statements – revealed in the leaked conversations – were a strategic maneuver intended to de-escalate conflict and protect lives. “As a Thai person, I emphasize my sincerity to work for the people of Thailand. I want to re-emphasize to the people that what I uphold is the lives of the people – both the army and civilians,” he stated to reporters after the court decision on Friday. He ultimately accepted the court’s order to resign.
The scandal involving conversations with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has fractured the governing coalition. The Bhumjaithai Party, a conservative faction, withdrew its support, leaving the Pheu Thai party with a narrow majority and fueling anxieties about a potential military intervention.
Currently, Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechaychai, who served as Acting Prime minister during Paetongtarn’s suspension, will continue in the role until the Thai parliament selects a new prime minister.Phumtham announced on Friday that coalition parties are aiming for a swift appointment.
Pheu Thai is widely expected to nominate Chaikasem Nitsiri as Paetongtarn’s replacement. Chaikasem, 77, is a lawyer and former Attorney General who previously served as Thailand’s Minister of Justice in 2013. Other potential candidates include Anutin Charnvirakul, a former Minister of Home Affairs, and Prayuth chan-Ochha, the leader of the 2014 military coup who remained in power until Paetongtarn’s appointment in 2023.
Shoudl parliament fail to agree on a successor, a motion of no confidence could be filed, leading to the dissolution of parliament and triggering a snap election.
Political analysts are assessing the long-term impact of Paetongtarn’s departure on the Pheu Thai Party. Napon jatusipitak, a political scientist at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, noted, “Pheu Thai will be forced to face the next election without a clear prime minister candidate.This increases the risk of internal division, especially if the party is not solid supporting the remaining candidates when the new prime minister must be elected.” He also pointed to the party’s compromised ideological stance following its 2023 coalition with conservative opponents, which has left it “in a vulnerable position and failed to fulfill the promise of its flagship policy.”
The situation also raises questions about the future of the Shinawatra political dynasty. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University Bangkok, believes the family has “suffered a setback for several years,” and that Paetongtarn’s actions have effectively diminished their influence in Thai politics.
though,the dynasty’s story may not be over. Last week, Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn’s father and a former Prime Minister, secured a important legal victory with the dismissal of charges of insulting the monarchy, which carried a potential 15-year prison sentence.