He stated in a 1985 television interview, “The computer is the most wonderful tool we have ever seen. It can be a writing tool, a communication center, a super calculator, a planner, a file saver, an artistic tool, all in one thing, just giving instructions, or writing code and software to work with it
At the time, computers were very expensive and difficult to use. However, Jobs had a vision of what it might one day become. โ
The following are three predictions Jobs made in 1985 that actually came true, but there’s a fourth prediction that made a mistake:
1. Computers will be available in the home for entertainment
In 1985, Apple released four computers: the Apple I in 1976, the Apple II in 1977, the Lisa in 1983 and the Macintosh in 1984. These devices are mainly used in offices for company accounts or for teaching in schools
Jobs explained that “the main reasons to buy a computer for your home now are because you want to do business at home or you want to run educational programs for yourself or your children.” However, he envisioned the potential, predicting that “this will change: computers will be essential in most homes.”
In 1984, according to the US Census Bureau, 8% of households in the United States owned a computer. In 2000, 51% owned a computer and by 2015, that number had risen to 79%.
2. We will use computers to interact with each other
Jobs foresaw that what would make computers more useful – for purposes outside of work – would be a communication tool that would be plugged into national communications networks.
The creation of a long-distance computer communications network began decades ago as an academic research project called the ARPANET funded by the United States military. โ
ARPANET became the foundation of the modern Internet as engineers began building new networking standards, called TC/IP. ARPANET switched to this standard on January 1, 1983, paving the way for an open global network.
Now, everything from vacuum cleaners to light switches is connected to the Internet, a major technology trend known as the “Internet of Things.” โ
The potential economic impact of smart device adoption could range from $3.9 trillion to $11.1 trillion by 2025, according to an analysis by the McKinsey Global Institute.
3. Computers will have a mouse
Hard as it is to imagine, computers weren’t always powered by a mouse, before Apple introduced the Lisa and the Macintosh (with a mouse and a user interface), the majority of commercially sold personal devices needed to write instructions and commands. keyboard.
Jobs defended his endorsement of the mouse: “If I wanted to tell you there’s a stain on your shirt, I wouldn’t semantically: ‘There is a stain on your shirt 14 centimeters below the collar and three centimeters to the left of the button. if you have a place – “There is!”[ูุดูุฑ] – I’ll refer to him. Pointing is a metaphor we all know.”
“It’s much faster to do all sorts of work, like cut and paste, with a mouse, so it’s not only easier to use, but it’s more efficient.”
4. Software will be competitive, while hardware will be monopolistic
In 1985, Jobs predicted that there would be only a few computer companies making hardware and a large number of companies working on software, and he turned out to be wrong, as there are currently many technology companies in this field.
“In terms of providing software to the computer itself, that’s going to be limited to Apple and IBM,” Jobs said, “and I don’t think there’s going to be that many companies.” โ
