South Lebanon

More than two months after the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, and the resulting tensions in the entire region, events are accelerating to a new phase of escalation on the northern border of Israel.

Tensions are rising between Hezbollah, on the one hand, and the Israeli occupation army, on the other, as the occupation relies on intensifying its strikes on civilian homes in the border villages in southern Lebanon, threatening further escalation.

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This escalation is somewhat controlled in accordance with the rules of engagement drawn up between the party and the occupation after the 2006 war. However, the continued bombing by “Israel” is attributed to the possibility of an escalation of the conflict on the Lebanese front, coinciding with the development of the war of extermination against the Palestinians in Gaza.

In this context, parties related to the peacekeeping forces convey messages from the occupation to Hezbollah, in which Israel considers any movement on the border with Lebanon, up to a depth of 3 kilometers, whether civilian or military, to be a legitimate target for its forces.

While Hezbollah responds to this message by confirming that any executive threat from the occupation will lead to a similar reaction, as it considers any movement deep inside the Palestinian territories a legitimate target, whether civilian or military.

These messages come within the framework of the ongoing political debate between Western countries about how to avoid a Lebanon war with “Israel,” while providing security guarantees to the Israeli entity regarding the non-recurrence of what happened in the Al-Aqsa flood on the Lebanese front.

Western delegates carry threatening messages from the occupation to Lebanese officials, threatening to destroy Beirut, and demanding the implementation of International Resolution 1701 and the withdrawal of a party from the south of the Litani River.

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On the other hand, the Western delegation meeting with the party seeks to reach a common vision to calm the situation, taking into account Hezbollah’s decision to defend Lebanese sovereignty and support Gaza.

Despite the ongoing speculation, a clear vision has not yet been presented about what the future scene in the south will look like. The party adheres to its position that stopping the aggression against Gaza is a prerequisite for any possible truce, refusing to provide any security guarantees to “Israel.”

On the other hand, the West stands behind the idea of ​​amendments to Resolution 1701, but this proposal objects to the diverse composition of the UN Security Council and the sharp division it has been suffering from since the Russian-Ukrainian war.

In addition, Russia is considered to be obstructing any fundamental change in UNIFIL’s mission, which makes it difficult for Western countries to achieve any amendment with international support.

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Regarding the reinforcement of Lebanese Army forces south of the Litani River, this logic faces challenges on two fronts.

First, Western countries are not yet able to develop a clear vision on how to deter the Israeli occupation or ensure that it does not continue to violate Lebanese sovereignty and the conditions for stopping the aggression against Gaza.

Second, the Lebanese Army faces difficulty transferring additional forces to the south; Due to the continued exposure to direct targeting by the occupation.

The current conflict between Hezbollah, the occupation, and the intervention of Western powers appears within a complex framework, requiring a comprehensive diplomatic solution to avoid escalation of the crisis and achieve stability in the region.