The Argentine blue dollar, a parallel exchange rate, is experiencing a significant downturn, dropping $25 on Thursday, December 5th. This brings the buying price to $1,025 and the selling price to $1,060.this decline is pushing the informal exchange rate closer to the official retail exchange rate, which currently averages $1,043.17, according to the Banco Central.
December has seen a cumulative drop of $55 for the blue dollar, marking the moast substantial decrease in months. This movement makes it the most affordable exchange rate among similar alternatives and signifies a convergence wiht the official rate not witnessed since the exchange rate reset in 2019.
The gap between the blue dollar and the wholesale exchange rate, currently at 4%, is reaching its lowest point in five years. This narrowing gap indicates a reduction in pressure on the informal market, frequently enough seen as a barometer of economic distrust. Its decrease could suggest greater short-term stability.
This decline, marking four consecutive days of downward movement, has brought the blue dollar to levels unseen since May 13th of last year, when it closed at $1,045.
“the market attributes this fall to a variety of factors,such as the elimination of the COUNTRY TAX for special payments in dollars and the new exchange scheme that tries to make transactions simpler and cheaper for users,” said one analyst. “These measures seem to have reduced the demand for dollars in the informal circulation.”
The Blue Dollar Falls,and So Do Dollar Futures
Simultaneously occurring,dollar future contracts have also shown bearish trends,notably as December draws to a close. This suggests that investors are anticipating lower exchange rate volatility for the remainder of the year, aligning with the stability observed in the blue dollar.
With such a narrow gap between the blue dollar and the official rate,analysts believe convergence is unlikely if this trend persists. This situation reflects a scenario unprecedented since 2019, when the reset stocks signaled the beginning of a significant distortion in the exchange market.
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