Russia’s war against Ukraine

Operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Russia

Ukrainian and Russian forces continued their offensives in the Glushkovsky region, west of the main Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, on 7–9 October, but achieved no decisive success.

Ukrainian forces continued to attack the main Ukrainian in the Kursk region. Russian sources said Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks east of Korenevo in the Olgovka region; southeast of Korenevo in the Lyubimovka and Plekhovo area; and northeast of Sudzha in Russky Porechny, Cherkasy Porechny and Marinovka region.

Russian troops have reportedly advanced recently into a key Ukrainian position in the Kursk region amid ongoing fighting in the region. The Russian Ministry of Defense said on October 9 that Russian troops had captured Novaya Sorochina (north of Sudzha) and Pokrovsky (southeast of Korenevo). Russian bloggers also reported that units of the Russian 106th Airborne Division captured more than half of Lyubimovka. However, ISW found no visual evidence to support these claims.

Eastern Ukraine. Operation No. 1 – Kharkov region

Russian troops recently advanced on Volchansk. Geolocation photos released on October 7 showing a Russian soldier raising a Russian flag at the Volchansky Aggregate Plant building indicate that Russian troops appear to have retaken the plant, ISW said.

Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast of Kharkov in the Volchansk and Staritsa region on October 7, 8, and 9. A Ukrainian official stationed in the Kharkiv region said on October 7 that Russian troops are building longer trenches in deep ravines and streams that are more difficult to clear, as well as interconnected tunnels.

Operation No. 2 – Lugansk region

Russian troops recently advanced northwest of Kremennaya amid ongoing offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya line on October 8 and 9. Geolocation images released on October 7 indicate that Russian troops have recently moved south along highway O-131306 southeast of Makeyevka (northwest of Kremennaya).

Russian troops continued offensive operations:

• northeast of Kupyansk in the Sinkovka region;
• east of Kupyansk in Kucherovka district;
• southeast of Kupyansk in the area of ​​Kruglyakovka, Novoosinovo, Stepovaya Novoselovka and Lozovaya;
• west of Svatovo in Vishnevoye district;
• southwest of Svatovo in Novovodyanoye district;
• northwest of Kremennaya in the district of Novosadovo, Makeevka, Nevsky, Druzhelyubovka and Grekovka;
• west of Kremennaya in Torskoye district;
• south of Kremennaya in Serebryansky forestry district; and southwest of Kremennaya in Dibrovo district.

Operation No. 3 – Donetsk region

Russian troops recently advanced to the Seversk region. Geolocation images released on October 7 and 8 show that Russian troops have recently advanced east of Grigorovka (northeast of Seversk) and into the west of Verkhnekamensky (the east of Siversk), indicating that the Russian troops of Verkhnekamenskoye seem to have been captured.

Russian bloggers claim that units of Russia’s 2nd Motorized Rifle Brigade have captured Grigorovka and Serebryanka, and that Russian troops have also moved north of Verkhnekamenskoye and Spornoye (southeast of Seversk). However, ISW has not seen confirmation of these statements

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Chasova Yar area on October 7, 8 and 9, but no changes were confirmed on the front line in the area. Russian bloggers reported that Russian troops had made progress inside the Zhovtnevy micro-district of Chasov Yar itself, but ISW has not seen confirmation of this claim.

Recently Russian troops advanced to the south of Toretsk. Geolocation images released on October 8 show that Russian troops have recently advanced on Heroes of Labor Street in the east of Toretsk and on Pobeda and Konstitutsii streets in the south of Toretsk.

Ukrainian National Guard spokesman Ruslan Muzychuk said on October 8 that Russian troops occasionally use armored vehicles during attacks near Toretsk and are aiming to advance to Toretsk from New York. and Nelipovka (both south of Toretsk).

Russian troops continued offensive operations north of Toretsk in the Dylevka area; near Toretsk itself; and south of Toretsk in the area of ​​Shcherbinovka, Nelipovka, New York and Sukhaya Balka on October 7, 8 and 9.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced during a counter-offensive east of Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Pokrovsk. Geolocation images released on October 8 show that Ukrainian forces have recently advanced to the northwest of Mykolaivka.

Geolocation images released on October 8 show that Russian forces have advanced north of Novogrodovka (southeast of Pokrovsk) and have made little progress in the center of Zhelanny Pervoy (southeast on Pokrovsk).

Russian troops continued attacks east of Pokrovsk in the district of Novotoretsky, Mirolyubovka, Promin, Nikolaevka, Krutoy Yar, Sukhoi Yar and Lysovka and southeast of Pokrovsk in the district of Novogrodovka, Nikolaevka, Selidovo, Kalinovo, Novoselidovka and Tsovka Gornyak 7, 8 and 9 October.

Russian troops continued offensive operations west of Donetsk in Maksimilyanivka, Georgievka, Gostrogo, Kurakhovka and Kurakhovo districts.

The Ukrainian army brigade operating in the direction of Kurakhovo released a video on October 8 showing Ukrainian soldiers repelling an attack by a Russian mechanized company in an unspecified area, and reported that Ukrainian soldiers damaged four armored vehicles.

Russian troops continued offensive operations southwest of Donetsk on October 9 and have reportedly made recent progress. Russian sources, including the Russian MoD, said that units of the 5th Tank Group captured Zolotaya Niva on October 8 and were established in the town on October 9. A Russian blogger reported on October 8 that Russian troops had moved north of Ugledar. However, ISW has not observed any visual evidence to support these claims.

Russian and Ukrainian sources did not report any military activity in the border area between Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions on October 7, 8 and 9.

“Southern Axis”

Russian troops have recently made small advances south of Stepnogorsk amid ongoing attacks in the western Zaporozhye region on October 7, 8 and 9. Geolocation images released on October 8 show that Russian troops have have recently made small advances in southwest Kamenskoye (south of Stepnogorsk).

Russian troops also attacked near Rabotino and northwest of Rabotino to Novodanilovka on 8 and 9 October.

Russian troops continued with attacks in the direction of Kherson on October 7, 8 and 9, but there were no confirmed changes on the front line in this regard.

The publication noted that Ukraine’s escape in the Donbass may seem to be a sign of the end of the war, but Ukrainian leaders and military experts deny that.

At the same time, they say, a more important struggle is emerging in the region. The Ukrainian military explained that it is now a fake war, with each side trying to wear the other down by inflicting the maximum number of casualties, in the hope of ability and break the enemy’s will to continue the war.

It is already clear that during the summer, despite losses, Russia sent waves of soldiers, supported by columns of armored vehicles, to violent attacks.

Nikolai Beleskov, a military analyst at the State Institute of Strategic Studies of Ukraine, called the strategy “exchange space for Russian losses.” According to him, the idea is to return from the cities under attack, but inflict as many casualties on the enemy.

Meanwhile, Alexander Solonko, a member of the 411th Ukrainian unmanned battalion, which is fighting around the city of Pokrovsk, stressed that the question is what will the Russian military lose before they realize that it’s useless.

He emphasized that, in the face of continued attacks, some Ukrainian commanders prefer to “leave a position or populated area if this reduces casualties among personnel.”

The effect of the Kursk operation

The publication noted that the situation is complicated by the fact that Ukraine’s offensive in Russia’s western Kursk region in August has further reduced its resources, threatening its ability to regain control of its done in the Donbass without breaking the front line.

Pasi Paroinen, a military expert for the Finnish Blackbird Group, which analyzes video and satellite images from the battlefield, said that after the Kursk offensive, Russia advanced in the Donbass at a pace not seen since 2022. has covered about 270 square miles in the past two months, about three times more than in June and July, he said.

But even this leaves Russia very far from achieving its long-term goal of capturing the region completely. To do this, he needs to capture another 4,000 square miles of Ukrainian land, about five times more than he has captured in the past year.

“This war will not be decided by who controls Ugledar or other strategically important frontline cities… It is about how many troops the Russians have spent trying to capture Ugledar, compared to the loss that the Ukrainians suffered trying to keep it,” he said. Franz-Stefan. Gadi, a military analyst based in Vienna.