India’s Rural Fertility Rate Reaches Replacement Level, Signaling Demographic Shift
New Delhi – india’s rural areas have achieved a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.0 children per woman, reaching replacement level for the first time, according to recent data released by the National Family Health Survey-6 (NFHS-6).This milestone, recorded in 2023/24, indicates a notable demographic shift within the contry’s vast rural landscape, historically characterized by higher birth rates.The decline in rural fertility, coupled with already sub-replacement rates in urban centers, suggests India is rapidly approaching a national TFR below the 2.1 threshold needed for population stability. This progress has profound implications for India’s future population size,age structure,and socio-economic development,impacting everything from workforce availability and healthcare demands to pension systems and economic growth strategies. The trend is attributed to increased access to family planning services, improved female literacy, and changing societal norms prioritizing smaller families.
NFHS-6 data reveals that the TFR in rural areas decreased from 2.7 children per woman in 2015-16 (NFHS-5) to 2.0 in 2023-24. While urban areas continue to exhibit lower fertility rates, the rural decline is particularly noteworthy given that approximately 65% of India’s 1.4 billion population resides in rural communities.
The report also highlights variations across states. Southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala have long maintained TFRs below replacement level, while northern states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are still experiencing higher fertility rates, though these are also showing a downward trend. Experts predict that continued investment in education,healthcare,and women’s empowerment will be crucial to sustaining this decline and ensuring equitable demographic transitions across all regions of India. The long-term consequences of a slowing population growth rate will require careful policy adjustments to address potential challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities.