Jakarta – JP Morgan Indonesia forecasts the rupiah will trade at Rp 16,100 per US dollar by the end of 2025, citing anticipated dollar weakness and strengthening in the Indonesian capital market.
The projection reflects a positive outlook for the rupiah,currently trading around Rp 16,300,according to Gioshia Ralie,CEO & Senior Country Officer at JP Morgan Indonesia.”The target is Rp 16,100 per US dollar at the end of the year… This rupiah will be better and can be more stable,” Ralie stated on Thursday (September 4, 2025), as reported by Antara.
Currently, foreign ownership of Indonesian fixed income securities stands at approximately 15%, a critically important decrease from a previous range of 50%. Ralie attributed this shift to high US interest rates driving investment into Indonesian debt securities.
Increased investment, both domestic and international, is crucial for continued rupiah strengthening, Ralie emphasized. “Now this domestic or foreign, it can run if we have an easier process. So the business is a medium term, not short term.”
henry Wibowo, Head of Indonesia Research & Strategy at JP Morgan Indonesia, highlighted the influence of the US dollar index on rupiah movements. “So, if we see the rupiah there are two factors, one internal factor from Indonesia is like, investment must enter, the economic growth must be good. Second is from the US dollar itself, the dollar trend is weakened or again strengthened.”
JP Morgan projects a weakening of the US dollar index over the next 12 months,further supporting rupiah recognition. Wibowo also forecasts the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) will reach 7,500-8,000 by the end of 2025, driven by anticipated government spending. “Maybe at the present time until the end of the year, we feel that IHSG will move at 7,500 to 8,000 levels.”