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Hamas Faces Existential Threat as Israel Intensifies Gaza Offensive

Gaza City, August 9, 2025 – Hamas, the militant group controlling the Gaza Strip, is facing an increasingly precarious future as Israel’s military operation continues, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring intentions for “full control” over Gaza and the elimination of Hamas. The conflict, sparked by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel that resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths and over 240 hostages taken, has led to a devastating humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

While immediate physical survival is paramount, Hamas leaders are also focused on maintaining political relevance, a goal currently supported by elements within the Palestinian political landscape that could facilitate future negotiations. However, achieving this dual objective requires tough strategic decisions as the group’s options dwindle.

Reuters

The Shifting Landscape for Hamas

Netanyahu’s stated objectives – complete control of Gaza and the dismantling of Hamas – significantly narrow the group’s potential pathways forward. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have conducted extensive airstrikes and ground operations, particularly in areas like Gaza City, jabalia, and khan Yunis, resulting in widespread destruction of infrastructure and a reported death toll exceeding 37,000 Palestinians as of July 2024, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

Amir Cohen / Reuters

Hamas’s potential for long-term survival hinges on several factors. One possibility, outlined by the group, is a commitment to cease armed struggle in exchange for the establishment of a Palestinian state. However,the prospect of a viable Palestinian state remains distant,contingent on a important shift in the current Israeli government’s position. Negotiations, previously mediated by qatar, Egypt, and the united States, have stalled repeatedly.

even if a Palestinian state were to emerge,experts suggest Hamas is unlikely to disappear entirely. Yossi Mekelberg, of Chatham House, posits that the group could rebuild, either within Palestinian territories or from abroad, potentially retaining a role in the Palestinian political arena. This reconstruction could involve leveraging support from countries like Iran and Qatar, which have historically provided financial and political backing to Hamas.

The group’s future influence will also depend heavily on its popularity among Gazans following the extensive devastation and humanitarian crisis. The United Nations estimates that over 80% of Gaza’s population has been internally displaced, and access to essential resources like food, water, and medical care remains severely limited. The rebuilding process, estimated to cost billions of dollars, will be a crucial factor in shaping public opinion.

Key Figures: Mohammad Deif, the commander of Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, remains a central figure. Ismail Haniyeh serves as the head of Hamas’s political bureau, based primarily in Qatar.

Additional Context: Hamas was founded in 1987, shortly after the First Intifada, as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. The group has governed the Gaza Strip since winning the 2006 Palestinian elections and later ousting the Fatah-led Palestinian authority in 2007. The current conflict represents the most intense phase of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in decades.

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