After gold recorded a record level of $2,305.04, on Thursday, April 4, 2024, and the yellow metal has increased 2.6 percent since the beginning of the week, and American gold futures contracts rose 0.1 percent to $2,310.40, so when will the price of an ounce of gold reach $3,000?
The successive rises in the price of gold came recently, following the decision of the US Federal Reserve (the central bank) at its last meeting on March 20, to stabilize interest rates while announcing three cuts during the current year 2024. So where will gold prices go?
The Federal Reserve announced that the interest rate would remain unchanged for the fifth time in a row, while the bank is struggling to reduce inflation towards the two percent target. It also decided to keep the main interest rate at the range of 5.25-5.5 percent, in line with market expectations, after continued… In tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates since March 2022, at the same time the Fed maintained its interest rate cut expectations for 2024, adhering to three cuts, or the equivalent of 75 basis points, which pushes the interest rate to the range of 4.5-4.75 at the end of the year, followed by two cuts in Year 2025.
The price of gold reached new record levels this year despite the strength of the stock market and the American economy. What are the expectations for gold prices in 2024 and in the coming years?
Gold traded at its highest level ever at $2,305.04 per ounce on Thursday, April 5, increasing its gains since the beginning of the year to more than 20 percent, with expectations that gold prices for the second quarter will reach more than $2,305.04 per ounce. (the highest price for the precious metal to date) in the second quarter of 2024.
Gold price forecast
Analysts expect gold prices to remain above the $2,000 level during the current year as the global rush towards gold continues. Gold price expectations indicate that there is more room to rise even after reaching new record levels. In the same direction, most analysts expect an increase in gold prices in 2025. Moderate, but there are more optimistic expectations for the price of gold in the next five years, indicating that it will exceed the $3,000 level.
TD Securities expects gold prices to break new highs in the first half of 2024 as we approach the Fed’s target and with the possibility of a slowdown in the economy, and now the company expects that the price of gold will exceed the $2,300 level in the second quarter of 2023.
Mike McGlone, chief strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, believes during a conversation with Yahoo Finance that we may witness the first days of a bull market that sets off to new record levels, and JPMorgan also confirmed in its commodity forecasts for the year 2024 that the only bullish call it issued towards the commodity market was for gold. And silver.
As for the Dutch bank ING, it believes that the Federal Reserve’s policy remains the biggest key to gold prices in the coming months, which means that prices may continue to follow investors’ expectations of reducing interest rates in the short term.
UBS Group said that the rise in gold purchases by central banks globally in five decades and the possibility of President Donald Trump escalating tensions between the United States and China are all reasons to remain optimistic about the price of gold moving forward, and according to a survey conducted by the American WCG, it plans 24 % of all central banks to increase their gold reserves in 2024 due to concerns about the US dollar as a reserve asset. UBS says that gold is usually driven by macro variables, rather than supply and demand, explaining that the rise in the price of the gold commodity is unique; Because it has nothing to do with its use case.
WisdomTree says that once interest rate cuts look certain – which they have – they expect gold to trade well above current levels through 2024.
The World Bank
The World Bank expects the average price of gold to reach $1,950 per ounce, while the International Monetary Fund expects the average price of gold to reach $1,775 per ounce, in 2024.
While Goldman Sachs Bank expects the average price of gold to reach $2,133 per ounce in 2024, JP Morgan Chase expects the average price of gold to reach $2,175 per ounce in 2024, and Citigroup raised its 2024 forecast for the average price of gold to $2,040 per ounce. .
Asia’s leading bank, UOB, expects the price of gold to reach new highs in 2024.
International Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund had previously expected that the average price of gold would reach $1,775 per ounce in 2024, a slight decrease from $1,800 per ounce compared to expectations for the year 2023. Gold price expectations for 2024 are based on expectations of global economic activity, inflation expectations, and financial market conditions, and we await Updated gold price forecast for 2024 from the International Monetary Fund.
Goldman Sachs has a positive outlook for the yellow metal in 2024, and expects the price of gold to average $2,133 per ounce. The company’s analysts believe that gold will trade higher than the market consensus in the near term, primarily due to its status as a safe haven asset and a “factor.” Fear” prevailing in the markets, and this fear factor has been fueled by increasing uncertainties, including concerns regarding banking and finance, in addition to the increased possibility of a recession in the United States in 2024, and Goldman Sachs also cites the impact of wealth, especially the increase in income and savings. In emerging markets such as China and India, it is a supporting factor for gold prices.
JP Morgan expects that the Federal Reserve will completely reverse its policy of tightening interest rates in the very near future and begin lowering interest rates by the second quarter of 2024, as lower yields are considered an “important driver” for gold, as owning gold in a low environment The price forces you to give up the high income that you may earn from other investments in a high-yield environment, and therefore, money tends to flow back into gold, as JP Morgan expects this to happen during the next 12 to 18 months, indicating its expectations for the price of gold. Its 2025 average is $2,300.
The optimistic gold price forecast for 2024 is based on the expectation of a possible US economic recession, which may raise speculation about interest rate cuts (a decline in the dollar and correspondingly an increase in gold prices).
TD Securities expects that the markets need to be more convinced that gold will see upward movement, but they expect the price of gold to eventually exceed the $2,300 level in the second quarter. The main driver behind this optimistic outlook for gold is the growing belief in the market that reducing… Fed rate is becoming more likely sooner rather than later.
According to a recent study conducted by the World Gold Council, 24 percent of central banks intend to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, with their increasing pessimism regarding the US dollar as a reserve asset.
“This means the possibility of higher demand for gold in the coming years,” TD Securities analysts explain.
Gold price forecasts for the next five years
After trading in a sideways market for three years, the price of gold may resume the upward trend. The latest gold uprising occurred right after the price of gold fell below the $1,700 level for the first time in a year and a half on July 21, and continued to achieve gains of more than 25%. percent.
Although it is difficult to say with certainty in gold analysis over a long period of time, experts from various resources agree that gold will continue to rise, however, they have opposite opinions about the speed of this growth.
The Walt Investor website, before the strong rise of gold in recent days, believed that the opening price of gold in 2025 would be at $2,083, and the closing price in June 2025 would be at $2,289. At the end of December, the closing price of gold would be at $2. $131, the first half of 2026 is also pleasant and enjoyable for gold investors. The following periods after that will also show an upward trend, and the year will close at the level of $2,170 per ounce with a maximum price at the level of $2,200 per ounce. Moderate growth will continue until 2020. 2028, and the price of gold will reach the level of $2,260, according to the latest predictions about gold prices for the next five years.
As for the Long Forecast economic forecasting agency, it believes that the trading range for gold prices in 2025 will be between the levels of $2,200 – $2,500 per ounce, and gold price expectations for the next five years, according to the agency, indicate that gold will trade at the level of $2,342.
Gold exceeds $3,000
According to the latest long-term forecasts from Coinprice Forecast, the price of gold will reach the $2,400 level by the end of 2025, then the $2,700 level by the end of 2026, and gold will rise to the $3,000 level in 2027, and the $3 level. ,500 dollars in 2030, and the level of $4,000 in 2033, and this is one of the most bullish expectations for gold prices. For the next five and ten years.
At the beginning of January 2027, the World Gold Council (WGC) expects a price of more than $3,500. It also says that the maximum expected price for 2027 is $3,794, and the expected minimum price is $3,529.
2024-04-06 21:11:08
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