Raise interest rates

The major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated flat on Tuesday (28th), in sharp contrast to previous gains, as investors remained cautious ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, waiting for officials to speak and looking for clues about the direction of monetary policy. .

before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagefell nearly 0.01%,Nasdaq Composite Indexfell nearly 0.2%,S&P 500 Indexfell nearly 0.1%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index fell more than 0.6%.

The November rally in U.S. stocks came to an abrupt end yesterday. The market was closed after Thanksgiving to closely monitor the Fed’s new monetary policy clues. Previous data showed that inflation has slowed, boosting hopes that the Fed may end raising interest rates. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly and was on track to post its biggest monthly drop in a year, while U.S. bond yields climbed, recouping some of the previous day’s losses.

Expectations that interest rates have peaked and that the economy will avoid recession have boosted stocks and bonds this month. Citi strategists believe thatS&P 500 IndexOne of the best November rallies in a century is running out of steam, with net positioning on the benchmark index looking “slightly bearish.”

Several policymakers, including trustees Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, will speak on Tuesday. As market focus turns to the timing of a potential rate cut, market participants will be keeping a close eye on their views.

Meanwhile, central bank chiefs in Australia, the United Kingdom and Thailand warned that the outlook for monetary policy remains uncertain. Joachim Nagel of the European Central Bank (ECB) said it was not yet time to consider lowering borrowing costs.

Kumar Pandit, a fund manager at Somerset Capital Management in London, said: “It is not surprising to see some funds being withdrawn, especially when the market does not expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates before the middle of next year. Although the inflation data was better than expected, this The rally is likely to end soon.”

In terms of energy, according to multiple media reports, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partner countries (OPEC+) have not yet resolved the deadlock on oil production quotas among member countries, and may extend the production reduction policy rather than adopt further production cuts to support oil prices. In addition, due to the There are still differences and the meeting may be postponed, but it is still unclear when exactly it will be postponed.

Before the deadline, it will expire in January next year.Brent crude oilFutures rose 0.94% to $80.73 a barrel; West Texas crude oil futures due in January rose 1.04% to $75.63 a barrel.

As of 22:00 Taipei time on Tuesday (28th):

Focus stocks:

Tesla (TSLA-US) rose 0.98% in early trading to $238.31 per share

According to the latest news from Cybertruck’s official account on Factory held. That’s an hour later than what a company executive had announced earlier.

apple (AAPL-US) rose 0.24% in early trading to $190.25 per share

Key sources from several consumer electronics supply chain companies revealed that Apple (AAPL-US) will officially mass-produce the first-generation MR (mixed reality) product Vision Pro in December this year. The first batch of stocks will be about 400,000 units. The sales target next year is 1 million units and 10 million units in the third year.

General Motors (GM-US) fell 0.56% in early trading to $28.34 per share

General Motors will cut spending on its self-driving unit Cruise after a pedestrian accident last month halted testing, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. While GM won’t give up on self-driving services, it will reduce investment in the unit going forward, in part because of an expected slowdown in testing. GM’s quarterly investment in Cruise is approximately $700 million.

Today’s key economic data:

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Wall Street analysis:

Deutsche Bank economists warned in a report released on November 27 that as the U.S. economy enters a mild recession in the first half of next year, the Fed will cut interest rates more than the market currently expects, and the bank is expected to cut interest rates in June 2024. 2 yards (50 basis points), kicking off the interest rate cutting cycle, and the rate cut next year will reach 175 basis points.

Major U.S. stock indexes fell on Friday (17th), U.S. debt 10-year yieldContinuing the decline from the previous session, the market continued to fall, as the U.S. economy showed signs of growth and the market increased bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates next year.

before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagefell more than 40 points or nearly 0.1%.Nasdaq Composite Indexfell more than 30 points or nearly 0.3%,S&P 500 Indexfell nearly 0.1%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index fell nearly 0.3%.

Weak inflation and employment data released in the United States this week have given investors more confidence that the aggressive monetary policy cycle of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks has finally come to an end. There are also signs that raising interest rates will eventually dampen economic growth. International oil prices fell 20% from the high point in September last year, entering a bear market.

Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett said technical and macroeconomic headwinds are building and investors should sell risk assets after recent gains. He said that while loose financial conditions (yields fell from 5% to 4%) stimulated risk appetite, a further decline to 3% would be seen as a sign of recession.

The bank also cited EPFR Global data as saying that in the week ended November 15, the central bank’s view of ending the interest rate hike cycle helped drive US$23.5 billion in capital inflows into equity funds, the second largest inflow this year.

In other news, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a stopgap bill that would extend federal financial support until early next year, temporarily averting a government shutdown but pushing the politically divided debate over the size of the federal budget into next year’s presidential election year. .

The White House confirmed the move in a statement on Friday morning local time, less than a day before existing funding expired. According to the latest statement, Biden, who is attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ summit in California, signed the stopgap legislation late Thursday local time.

As of 21:00 Taipei time on Friday (17th):

Focus stocks:

Gap(GPS-US) rose 22.75% to $16.78 per share in early trading

Apparel maker Gap’s stock price soared nearly 19% before the market opened on Friday, mainly due to signs that the company’s Old Navy brand is launching fashionable and popular clothing, while making only progress in controlling inventory. Two bullish news prices Holding on makes its shares popular among investors.

Applicable materials (AMAT-US) fell 5.77% in early trading to $145.87 per share

Applied Materials shares continued to fall after the bell on Friday. Earlier reports pointed out that the semiconductor equipment manufacturer was under investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice for violating export controls on China’s largest chip maker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation. It is understood that Yingcai shipped hundreds of millions of dollars worth of semiconductor equipment to SMIC without obtaining an export license.

Alibaba (BABA-US) fell 1.82% in early trading to $77.67 per share

Alibaba’s e-commerce-centric business model faces weak demand and increased competition, with the market value of Alibaba’s shares falling to about half that of rival Tencent Holdings. In addition, Alibaba suffered its biggest sell-off in more than a year in yesterday’s trading day, mainly due to the company’s decision to abandon plans to spin off its US$11 billion cloud business unit and readjust its strategy amid the U.S. ban on sales of advanced chips to China. , which also wiped out $683 million of Jack Ma’s assets.

Today’s key economic data:

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Wall Street analysis:

Options linked to $2.4 trillion worth of stocks, ETFs and stock indexes are set to expire on Friday, according to data compiled by Rocky Fishman, founder of U.S. options market analysis provider Asym50. With about a third of the call options tied to IWM set to expire on Friday, some of the momentum that drove small-cap stocks sharply higher over the past two weeks could fade if traders choose not to roll over.