Russia‘s Diminishing Influence: ukraine War Accelerates Internal Erosion & Regional Losses
WASHINGTON – As the war in Ukraine continues,Russia is experiencing a broader erosion of influence across the former Soviet Union and the Middle East,according to analysis from The Cipher Brief. While focused on the conflict in Ukraine, the Kremlin is simultaneously facing setbacks in regions previously considered within its sphere of influence, raising questions about the future of its power and stability.
Recent developments include a U.S.-brokered peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, signaling a shift away from Russian mediation. Kazakhstan is demonstrating increasing political and economic independence,further diminishing Moscow’s regional control. Even key allies are facing challenges: Iran has experienced significant setbacks due to actions by U.S. ally Israel, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a long-time Putin supporter, is reportedly in hiding in Moscow after losing control of power. The U.S. has taken a leading role in Middle East peace efforts,effectively sidelining Russia.
Experts argue a decisive strategy to end the Ukraine conflict is needed, encompassing political, economic, and military action. At The Cipher Brief’s recent Threat Conference in Sea Island, Georgia, discussions highlighted the lack of broad international political support for Ukraine beyond existing European and NATO alliances. A proposal suggests the U.S. sponsor a global meeting of heads of state to unequivocally condemn Russia’s aggression, demand withdrawal, and pursue reparations and justice for war crimes, delivering a clear message to Putin: “End this war!”
Alongside diplomatic pressure, increased economic sanctions against Russia are deemed crucial to weaken its war-making capabilities. Simultaneously, bolstering Ukraine’s military support – particularly in air defense and systems enabling offensive operations within Russia – is seen as essential.
Analysts emphasize that Russian President Vladimir Putin himself is the “root cause” of the conflict,and addressing his “delusions of empire” is the most effective path to resolution. The ongoing war and its associated consequences are increasingly viewed as accelerating internal pressures within Russia, potentially leading to Putin’s downfall and a resolution to the conflict.
