Here’s a breakdown of the provided text, focusing on the economic and policy trends discussed:

Core Theme: The text argues that a global shift is occurring, moving from an era of global connectivity towards an era of “caution over connectivity.” This is characterized by countries prioritizing domestic stability and national interests, leading to various forms of protectionism.

Key Examples and Trends:

United States:
Action: Cutting domestic staff and offices, reducing employees in agencies.
Reasoning: To cut costs and reflect a shift in government priorities towards domestic concerns, influenced by the “America First” policy.
Related Policy: High tariffs on imported commercial goods.
Interpretation: A move towards domestic focus and protectionism.

China:
Situation: High youth unemployment (officially 21%, but doubted due to “fake offices”).
Government Response: Creating “fake offices” to mask unemployment statistics.
Interpretation: A form of protectionism aimed at maintaining social stability by hiding structural problems, rather than implementing reforms or opening up to foreign investment. this shows a tendency to isolate domestic issues.

Japan:
Situation: Declining young labor force, aging population.
response: Opening doors to foreign workers, with a significant increase in their numbers (2.3 million as of Oct 2024).
Policy: Encouraging programs for skilled foreign workers (e.g., Specified Skilled Worker).
Interpretation: “Soft protectionism” – accepting foreign workers to fill labor gaps but with strict limitations on skills. The goal is to address workforce needs without compromising socio-cultural integrity.

Indonesia:
Situation: Layoffs, particularly in manufacturing and startups (over 26,455 cases by May 2025).
Reasoning: Local companies losing competition to foreign products, especially from China.
Dilemma: Pressure to protect domestic industries versus the need for global economic integration (dependence on foreign investment and exports).
Interpretation: Facing a difficult choice between protectionism and maintaining global economic ties.

Global Trend: Countries are increasingly prioritizing domestic stability over global openness.
Era: The world is moving towards an era of “caution over connectivity.”
Economic Diplomacy: Needs to balance protecting national interests with remaining open to the outside world.
Underlying Cause: A “crisis of confidence in the global economic system” and a “crisis of domestic capacity in the face of external pressures.”
common Outcome: Domestic protection and external selectivity.

In essence, the text describes a global trend where nations are retreating inward, driven by a combination of economic challenges, nationalistic policies, and a desire to maintain social and cultural stability. This is leading to a more fragmented and selective global economic landscape.