He popular rejection and a large group of deputies and senators opponents will have the key so that the Congress becomes a retaining fence that can avoid privatization plan what the president-elect anticipated Javier Mileywho in addition to the public media kept an eye on the state oil company YPFa transcendental player in energy matters for Argentina, which leads exploration and exploitation in Dead cowthe second largest gas reserve in the world and the fourth largest oil reserve.

The privatizations of Milei, with the style of Dromi

“Everything that can be in the hands of the private sector, will be in the hands of the private sector”, the president-elect warned hours after winning the runoff, and warned that he will seek to privatize not only YPF but also the public media – Radio Nacional, TV Pública and Télam, among others – as well as other state companies (in total there are 137). A speech identical to that of Roberto Dromi, the Minister of Public Works of Carlos Menem who went down in history for saying that “nothing that should be state will remain in the hands of the State.”

To advance privatizations, Milei must have the support of Congresswhere as of December 10 it will have greater representation than now, although very far from the quorum and the majority in both chambersso it will need agreements, especially with the Together for Change bloc, although even then it may not be enough, because the alliance is heading towards fragmentation after the crisis that produced the unconsulted agreement of Mauricio Macri y Patricia Bullrich with the libertarian for the runoff, which unleashed the fury of radicalism and the Civic Coalition.

The containment barrier to privatizations

The lawyer, former undersecretary of Hydrocarbons and owner of the consulting firm Paspartú, Juan José Carbajalessaid to Page|12 that to advance the expropriation an aggravated majority in Congress is required, because 51% of the shares of the oil company that are in the hands of the State are in shares of the Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS). A law passed in 2015 provides that two-thirds in the Deputies and the Senate are required for the sale of FGS shares. In other words, even more difficult for Milei.

In the case of the public media, a simple majority is enoughwhich the libertarian does not have either, much less in the Senatewhere you will barely have seven senators starting December 10, while Together for Change will have 24 and Unión por la Patria, 33, so Congress could become a containment barrier for the libertarian, who imagines a privatized Argentina.

YPF, in Milei’s sights

With the focus on YPF, Carbajales explained that, in addition to the technical issue of parliamentary majorities, Milei has a political negotiation with the provinces, which are the owners of the natural resources, as indicated in the National Constitution: of the 51% state, 51% is in the hands of the Nation and 49% in the hands of the provincial states, which exercise its power through directors and trustees in the Federal Organization of Hydrocarbon Producing States.

“They will have to negotiate with the provinces,” explained the consultant. Milei does not have any governor of its own and a good part of the oil provinces have governments closer to Peronism or with leaders of provincial parties who expressed themselves in favor of Sergio Massa. After saying that he wants to privatize it, the day after his victory the future president said that “first we have to rebuild it.”

If privatized, YPF would become another company in the marketgoverned only by standards of efficiency and profitability and abandoning its social, research and investment role. “YPF is not only in charge of supplying fuel, it also carries out works. That could be lost, maybe not overnight,” Carbajales explained.

The oil company has key subsidiaries such as YPF Agro and YPF-Tec, which in alliance with Conicet carry out research and development linked to lithium, a key mineral for the future and with a great presence in the region (Argentina integrates the “lithium triangle” with Bolivia and Chile). The United States does not hide its interest in the region precisely because of the relevance of “white gold.”

Privatizations by DNU?

Milei could also advance with its State reform – this is what Menem called the law that enabled him to raffle off public companies – through decrees of necessity and urgency (DNU), which could be signed from the first day of government and have the same validity as a law passed by Congress.

Although they come into force immediately after their publication, The DNU must be endorsed or rejected by Congress, in the Bicameral Congressional Agreements Commission, made up of eight deputies and eight senators, which issues an opinion and sends it to each chamber for treatment. Each chamber must decide whether to support or reject. If both reject it, it loses validity. If one approves it and the other does not, it is still in force, as explained to Page|12 the constitutional lawyer Andrés Gil Domínguez.

Until now, Congress was never able to back down with a DNU signed by the Executive Branch.

“Privatizations can be through a single general law or a law for each company,” he assured. Gil Dominguez. “If approved, the privatization process belongs to the Executive. In the case of public media, a simple majority is enough,” he added, and clarified: “The only thing it cannot do is issue a DNU to carry out tax, penal, electoral regime and political party reforms.”

The resistance in Congress and in the streets

Milei himself acknowledged that his reforms will be unpopular and that there will be street demonstrations, while warning that there will be repression if the people take to the streets, something that will naturally happen, as happened in the recent past, when layoffs were in the thousands in the state.

In response to this media’s query, Several deputies from Unión por la Patria announced that there will be resistance to avoid privatizations. “The best thing that can happen to us is to talk about unity, not go on a witch hunt,” said an experienced legislator, who warned of the noise that may exist in JxC due to the anger of many legislators who reject the agreement with Milei, even within from own PRO. “We must build blocks that are clear about what happened to us and how to recover the popular will”, remarked another deputy.

“To sell YPF they need two thirds, I remember the insurance that we put in the ANSES Fund so that they do not privatize. Selling YPF hurts my soul. and sell Vaca Muerta would be like taking a piece of me away“It is the energy independence that we have always fought for,” a historic Peronist with an office in the Lower House repeats under his breath, who does not lose hope: ““I think a brake can be put on it, especially in the Senate.”

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