Philippe

Due to the dry air and sharp winds that will continue to limit its strengthening, Tropical Storm Philippe will weaken within the next two days, until it will lose the characteristics of a tropical cyclone by the weekend, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) anticipated. in English).

Climatologically, a weakened tropical system stops moving northward and therefore it is possible that the phenomenon takes a southward turn by the weekend. This movement could bring the system closer to northern Puerto Rico as a tropical depression or the remnants of a low pressure.

In any case, the cyclone is expected to lose storm intensity and the forecast does not anticipate another strengthening in the medium term, so the island is not at risk of experiencing the direct impact of a storm.

In fact, there are no tropical storm watches or warnings issued for any territory in connection with this system.

“Maximum sustained winds are near 50 miles per hour (mph) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening is possible over the next few days. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 175 miles from the center,” the NHC detailed in its 5:00 am bulletin this Tuesday.

Currently, Philippe remains a disorganized tropical storm, and while its storm-force wind field is large, its concentrated area of ​​convection (where the strongest showers and thunderstorms are concentrated) is relatively small, due to this disorganization. This behavior is representative of how shear winds are affecting the vertical structure of the storm.

The main global models, as well as the regional ones, suggest a change in Philippe’s trajectory for the weekend, since there is consensus on its weakening in the coming days.

[26 de sept | 5 AM AST] Tormenta Tropical #Philippe Warning 12: Philippe Remains Disorganized. #PRwx #USVIwx pic.twitter.com/emTZwyGyeR

— NWS San Juan (@NWSSanJuan) September 26, 2023

However, high uncertainty prevails regarding where exactly the future tropical depression or low pressure would move and, furthermore, how wide its moisture field will then be.

Regardless of its movement, models suggest an increase in humidity in the local archipelago for next weekend.

If the forecast remains consistent as it has been, the heaviest rains would affect the northern half of Puerto Rico, although the entire island could experience at least passing rain or drizzle. If the phenomenon becomes a tropical depression, gust winds above 40 mph and thunderstorms could be recorded. Additionally, some sectors would experience sustained winds of 35 mph.

However, these projections have a wide margin of error and it would not be until next Friday when the certainty of the forecast increases.

In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, the NHC monitors the evolution of low pressure in the center of said region, identified as the suspected cyclonic area AL91, which has a high potential for development both in the next 48 hours and in seven days.

If it continues to organize its convection area, this disturbance could become Tropical Depression 18 within the next few days. According to the NHC projection, the system should move west-northwest, without heading directly to the Caribbean.

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Carlos Tolentino Rosario is a journalist who covers weather, climate change and science, among others. He holds a certification in weather forecasting from the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences at Pennsylvania State University (PSU). He is also a member of the American Meteorological Society (AMS).

2023-09-26 12:43:51
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