Pavlos Geroulanos

At the meeting of the Central Committee, last week, the gladiators of PASOK sharpened their swords for the first time. They showed their intentions. They opened their papers. And they tried to set the political framework that will help them create alliances, which may prove useful to them on the second Sunday. At the same time, addressing the body they hit the weaknesses of their opponents and in turn suffered cracks in their profile.

For many, this was the first half of a duel that will conclude with the debate that will take place today, Tuesday, September 24 at 21.00. There, in the studio of ERT in Agia Paraskevi, the suitors of the chair of the 6th floor of Harilaou Trikoupis will continue the dialogue, the fights, but also the blows in a pan-Hellenic broadcast. Their goal is to convince the people who will go to the polling stations on October 6, to put a preference cross next to their own name.

The gladiators

THE Nikos Androulakiswho will sit first at the dialogue table, is expected to appear united. He will emphasize that the following day all candidates must be on the ballots and at the same time he will play the card of political autonomy.

His close associate specifically reported to “Vima” how “Mr. Androulakis will highlight the strategy of the autonomous course of the party, which, as we see, strengthens the PaSoK on both sides” and went on to point out how “the tactic that Mr. Androulakis received from the late Fofi Gennimata is bearing fruit. It brought results in the European elections with two prefectures being painted green and establishes PaSoK as a pole of power”.

According to information, Mr. Androulakis will focus on the strategic plan he developed at TIF. At the same time, he has one more arrow in his quiver, hers “undermining the course of the PASOK” on the way to the European elections. An arrow expected to be placed in his bow and pointed at those who doubted him.

As he himself said “at 7 in the evening the polls closed for the European elections and at 7.10 we had the issue of leadership. The world of the faction will judge whether those who raised the issue of leadership at 7.10 were worried about the good course of the faction at 6.50”. This, combined with how quickly his co-candidates presented governance programs, is for the Androulakis camp a reason for explanations and a reason for conflict.

Social democracy

In her environment Annas Diamantopoulou there is satisfaction as in many polls her name appears in second place. “Although we started last, our momentum is starting to show. This is due to the coordinated work, to the tours, but also to Anna’s realistic, modern speech” she declares herself a person from her environment and points out that they expect attacks for her absence in the previous years from the PASOK, but also blows for the “clockwise rotation” of the ship. However, she has answered in the past that “the steering wheel will be firmly forward, neither left nor right.”

According to information, Mrs. Diamantopoulou’s speech in the teleconference will be targeted, unifying, with a future dimension and perspective. Her answers according to her colleagues “they will summarize her experiences in difficult situations that she has managed in the past, both as commissioner and as minister of education. At the same time, he will submit proposals for the social democracy of the 21st century, being aware of the times we live in and the policies we must follow” he said characteristically.

New model

THE Harry Doukaswho for many his placement in the Central Committee had a leftist sign, is expected to be placed programmatically, without entering into any confrontation. According to his close associate, the mayor of Athens “he is ready to exchange views so that society understands what each one stands for and to convince people to get up from the couch and participate en masse in the elections. The goal is civilized dialogue.”

As everything shows, Mr. Doukas comes to the dialogue table in order to promote economic issues, to talk about the welfare state and major national issues. While for the internal parties, it is expected to stand on the fact that PaSoK does not have a self-governing sector, but also on the fact that “he is not allowed to get comfortable, seeing in the opinion polls that his percentage increases by one or two points, when New Democracy loses ten points and SYRIZA eight points, in relation to the last national elections”, as he himself has repeatedly emphasized in the past.

Additionally “its purpose is to highlight his proposals, as well as the new governance model he proposes both for the party and for the country” such as said a typical man from his environment.

At the ballot box

For a new leadership that unites, is in the Parliament and is full-time, it is expected that he will speak Pavlos Geroulanos. According to information, Mr. Geroulanos will focus on the fact that the president of the party must also be a member of parliament, at the same time he is expected to emphasize the promotion of his work around the economy, dealing with punctuality, “red loans”, the Fund Recovery.

As for the opinion polls, the staff of Pavlos Geroulanos emphasize that “in a fluid political situation where the electorate will be formed in the final week, everyone admits that everything will be decided at the ballot box. If the polls were to be believed, Mr. Lover would be president of PaSoK, the lady Ahtsioglou to SYRIZA and Mr. Meimarakis president of the ND and prime minister of the country. Everyone will be judged and we will be judged on October 6.”

Claim

As for the two candidates who are running low in the measurements, o Michalis Katrinis will be positioned for the need for a large progressive faction that will not cooperate with the New Democracy. At the same time, he will emphasize that PaSoK must claim power and not be satisfied with the small increase in its percentage from match to match. From the environment they expect an attack for left-handed tactics and they answer how “Mr. Katrinis has defended PaSoK since 2007 from all positions of responsibility and has never flirted with other parties, nor remained uninvolved in the faction’s difficult times.”

From her side Nadias Giannakopoulou point out that he will answer with “clarity, freshness, drive and technocratic proficiency on all subjects”, as its purpose is to become “a civilized and serious dialogue”.

Even the betting companies have been forced to revise their predictions. At the beginning of the race for the leadership of PaSoK, they showed Haris Doukas as their favorite, then they changed their mind and bet on Nikos Androulakis, then they reconsidered and for the next 15 days we will see.

The inconsistency of the match has been recorded in all the series of polls that have seen the light of day. Nikos Androulakis and Haris Doukas appear as the dominant duo for the second round but they feel, in some measurements at the limits of statistical error, the threat of Anna Diamantopoulos while they wonder what the electoral limits of Pavlos Geroulanos are after all. The ones recorded by the polls or the ones they themselves smell in their contact with the base of PaSoK?

The two keys to the match

Candidate staffs do their own counting. They put all participation scenarios under the microscope to get a full picture of the dynamics that each candidacy can have. They are looking for their appeal within and outside the boundaries of the PSOC. The battle for the leadership of PaSoK in the first decisive round will be decided by two factors.

The first is the appeal of the candidates to the narrow electoral base of PaSoK. Here the imprint of Nikos Androulakis is strong, but the impact recorded by Haris Doukas is not at all negligible. The presence of Pavlos Geroulanos is also strong. Anna Diamantopoulou seems to be lagging behind in this electorate. The second is the influx that will occur from citizens who did not vote for PaSoK in the elections. Anna Diamantopoulou takes the lion’s share of the audience that will come from the center.

In the most left-leaning audiences, Haris Doukas leads with Pavlos Geroulanos taking a notable part of them. Here lies a difficulty and a challenge for Nikos Androulakis. To increase the degree of trust in his person by the voters who in the previous elections did not vote for PASOK but seem willing to attend his internal party process. The bottom line is that size (how many) as well as composition (who) will determine who the second round duo will be.

The geographic battle

An interesting element is the… geographical appeal of the candidates. Nikos Androulakis has a strong presence in the region. Crete, Xanthi, Northern Aegean are his strongest cards. The percentages of Mr. Androulakis are moving, throughout the region, at percentages above 20%. In Crete, despite the losses, it is likely to record a percentage more than double the second. It can, in this way, “refer” the lag in the urban centers.

Pavlos Geroulanos and Anna Diamantopoulou register remarkable percentages in the urban centers, in Athens and in Thessaloniki. Pavlos Geroulanos in Kefalonia and Anna Diamantopoulou in the region of Western Macedonia also record high percentages in their respective homelands. In the urban centers, the presence of Haris Doukas (Athens, North Piraeus) is also significant, while in the Western Sector of Athens, Nadia Gianakopoulou registers a strong presence.

The individual elements

Who is the candidate with the least dislikes and the most likes in PaSoK? Pavlos Geroulanos. Who is considered the person who can unite the Center Left? Harry Doukas. Who is closer to the citizen? Androulakis and Katrinis. Who has prime ministerial aura? Anna Diamantopoulou. Which presidential candidate voters show the most confidence to vote? By Nikos Androulakis. How many want a change in leadership? Most of them.

Does all this mean anything? It depends on the voting criteria. In any case, all the evidence suggests that the elections in PaSoK will be, as we usually say, a battle that will be decided by the thread.