PaSoK elections

Possible political carambolas and interactions of many and various parameters begin to be discerned in the background of the political debate with a horizon of the presidential election of 2025 and the related decisions of Kyriakou Mitsotakis.

With the imminent end of the impasse in the leadership of the PASoK and pending the formation of the political positions of the party, but also of the general dispositions in the new phase of confrontation and dialogue with the government, it is expected that a new treaty will emerge, with more or less conditions for agreement with the SW. The face of the President of the Republic will be a first occasion, through which many of the above will be seen.

The element of surprise

The Prime Minister has reasonably attempted to stop and prevent pre-elections at this stage, but he will soon be called upon to make his decisions. There is about two months left until the end of the year, and the preparation should have progressed by the beginning of 2025. Despite the ongoing denials, the Maximos Palace has already been discussing the possible possibilities and the possibilities of reaching consensus around one or another person. And in this context, the carefully circulated information converges to the fact that there have even been ballistics of specific actors.

According to the most recent relevant information, two possibilities have been ruled out and a third is being considered, which, if verified, would constitute a political surprise and shape a new political environment, in the broadest sense.

It seems after these and with the data of the moment that the possibilities of their candidacies are rather definitively removed Costas Karamanlis and Antonis Samaraseither because of their own reluctance or because the climate between the two former and the current prime ministers is rather heavy. Moreover, an option with such characteristics would garner a chance of consent only from the parties of Accra and the populist Right.

The “opposition” of the “18”

In this light, it matters how intra-party mobility, which now manifests itself in clear groupings and opposition-minded parliamentary questions, will develop. Last relevant case, although with very different characteristics from the recent question of “11” to Kostis Hatzidakiswas the question of eight (different) MPs to Niki Kerameos and him Adonis Georgiadis during the week, for the participation of low pensioners in the pharmaceutical expenditure. It is estimated that this is not the last case of intra-party reaction and the attitude of the parliamentarians and their next steps are now under the microscope of the Maxim Palace, as a total of 18 members of the KO, plus the Mario Salmaseem determined to continue the idiosyncratic opposition.

In this situation, the Presidential election takes on a special importance, with a crucial parameter being whether the Prime Minister’s proposal will combine three elements:

• If he will keep the SW KO mostly solid.
• If it will be possible to ensure a minimum of parliamentary consent, so that Kyriakos Mitsotakis does not find himself in the unpleasant position of electing the President even with a minority.
• If it will ensure the necessary characteristics of prestige and international reach.

The discussion about Stournaras

Already from the summer discussions in the close staff of the Maximos Palace, the name of the governor of the Bank of Greece had fallen on the table, Giannis Stournaraswhich is considered to meet all three conditions. He had a successful term as Minister of Finance in the Samara-Venizelou government and in a critical period, before jumping to the Central Bank, he has a good “press” in the PASOK, from which he comes, after all, and is at the forefront of the international financial system.

The Prime Minister himself last Friday in an interview on Nikos Evagelatos’ show on Mega stated that “it is important that the President of the Republic can always have supra-party characteristics”, without certainly making an allusion to any person.

Whether the relevant discussion, which is still not closed, will result in the central banker’s proposal for the Presidency cannot be answered at the moment, but he himself, according to information, has been informed of the relevant thoughts of the Prime Minister. And anyway, it is known that he follows political developments closely, as well as that he is particularly careful about the content of his public statements. Some sources point in this light to his recent public intervention on the necessity of the Greek-Turkish dialogue, which coincided with the presence of Kyriakos Mitsotakis in New York and his meeting with Tayyip Erdogan.

A crucial detail in the debate about moving the central banker to Herodes Atticus is that his term ends in 2026. Oper means he would have to be replaced early if the scenario plays out. This parameter is not prohibitive nor does it constitute any particular problem, but it highlights and illuminates some details of a different kind in the political background.

The potential domino

If things were to develop in this way, a new debate would start as to who would succeed Giannis Stournaras at the Bank of Greece.

And in this field, a behind-the-scenes process is already developing, which may not yet have strong characteristics, but it is revealing, on the one hand, about the moods and plans of the Prime Minister and, on the other hand, about another aspect of the internal party debate in the ND.

According to information, the person that Kyriakos Mitsotakis would like to be in the leadership of the Council of Ministers is the current Minister of Environment and Energy Theodoros Skylakakis. The relationship of trust with the Prime Minister is known, who has assigned him critical financial positions since the beginning of the government in 2019 and is considered a person with all the necessary characteristics for the position of central banker.

At the same time, as a possible successor to Giannis Stournaras, if there is a development of his rise to the Presidency of the Republic, another member of the ND, the Minister of Infrastructure and Transport, is being discussed. Christos Staikouras. He is also a person with financial training, he was considered successful in the Ministry of Finance in a critical period, but the interesting detail in this case is different: this scenario is mainly promoted by the Karamanli group inside the ND and it is rather uncertain that the Kyriakos Mitsotakis would be led to such a choice under these conditions.