opinions

Okay, here’s a breakdown of the key arguments ‌and points made in the provided text, ⁤organized for clarity. I’ll cover the situation, the problems, the proposed options,⁤ and the author’s conclusion.

I. The Current situation:‍ A‍ Strained Defense

* Holding‌ the Line, But ​Not Winning: Ukraine is currently managing to slow the Russian advance, but is far from⁤ capable of​ winning the war.This is achieved through immense cost and effort.
* Supply Issues & Corruption: The army is considerably under-supplied. ⁣ Corruption, specifically mentioning Tymur Mindich and procurement issues, is diverting resources.
* Declining Morale & Increasing Desertion: The war has been‌ ongoing⁤ for four years,leading to exhaustion,rising ⁢divorce rates,and collapsing morale. There’s a dramatic increase in cases of unauthorized absence (AWOL) and desertion. Numbers are provided:
⁣ * 255,000+ ⁤AWOL cases (since 2022)
* ‌56,000+ desertion cases (since 2022)
* 162,500 AWOL cases (first 10 months of ‍2025)
* 21,600 desertion cases (first 10 months of 2025)
* ⁤ ​21,000 troops left the army⁢ in October‍ alone.
* ⁤ Social Injustice: The war is exacerbating​ social inequalities.
* Demographic Crisis: Ukraine’s population has drastically declined (from 50 million to 31 million in Kyiv-controlled territory). Birth rates are below death rates, and fertility rates are very ⁣low (around one child per woman).

II.Strategic‍ Options Presented

the author outlines three potential paths forward for ‍Ukraine:

1. Accept ⁣Putin’s‍ Terms (Capitulation):

* Pros: Preserves a Ukrainian state (albeit a diminished one).
* Cons: Loss of political standing, territorial concessions, and long-term vulnerability.

2. Radical Overhaul of Leadership & Military:

*⁣ Focus: Rebuilding mobilization,restructuring the command system,and fundamentally re-engineering the⁢ war effort.
* Rationale: Current institutions are inadequate for a prolonged war.

3. Maintain the Status ‍Quo:

* Strategy: Continue precision ⁢strikes ⁢on Russian oil infrastructure, hoping to cripple the ⁢Russian economy and wait for Putin’s death.
‌ *⁣ Author’s Assessment: This is⁢ an illusion.Strikes won’t be enough to force Russia to stop, given the size disparity between the two countries.

III. The author’s‍ Conclusion & Concerns

*​ ‍ Ukraine Has Chosen ⁣the status Quo: ‍Zelenskyy and European partners appear to have committed to⁣ the third ⁣option (maintaining the ⁢status quo).
* Sustainability is doubtful: This approach is unsustainable due to:
‌ * Morale & Exhaustion: Four years of war have taken a ‍toll.
‌* ⁤ Financial Crisis: A vast budget deficit and public debt exceeding 100% of GDP.
* Lack of European Support: Europe‍ has failed to provide sufficient funding. Belgium hasn’t released frozen Russian assets, and economic growth‌ in europe is ⁢weak.
* Unreliable US commitment: The EU cannot secure long-term commitments​ from the United States given the current political climate in Washington.
* urgent Need for ⁤Change: The author strongly argues that Ukraine must eventually choose the⁢ second option (radical restructuring) to survive.
* ‌ Worsening Terms: Delaying this change⁣ will result in harsher terms from Moscow. The Russian ⁢demands will likely expand beyond the current four regions to eight, with added demands for control mechanisms, demilitarization, and further concessions.
* ‍ Time is Running Out: Radical change is needed instantly ⁣before Ukraine’s options ⁢disappear and its ability to resist collapses.

In essence, the author paints a grim picture ​of Ukraine’s current ‌situation, arguing that the current strategy is failing and that a drastic, ​painful overhaul of leadership and military structures is the only ​path to long-term survival, even if ‌it means accepting unfavorable⁤ peace terms in the future.