💬How are you feeling about a potential rate cut?
Table of Contents
- 💬How are you feeling about a potential rate cut?
- Qantas ‘contacted by potential cybercriminal’
- ICYMI: Alan Kohler’s Finance Report
- Why house prices are tipped to keep rising
- Two more rate cuts expected in 2025, says CBA chief economist
- How has the RBA’s cash rate been tracking?
- Musk’s political plan hits Tesla
- The countdown is on: RBA decision to be delivered at 2:30pm AEST
- Wall Street knocked lower by tariff jitters
- ASX to fall
We’re keen to hear from you about your experience — share your view in the comments and we’ll get the conversation going.
Are you hanging out to reduce your home loan repayments? Or will you bank the savings?
Are you a renter hoping your landlord might be prompted to give you a reprieve?
Are you a saver not looking forward to a lower deposit rate? Or someone relying on interest income?
Are you a would-be home buyer hoping to see your borrowing capacity increase? Or worried it could fuel further house price rises?
Hit the comment button above ⬆️
Qantas ‘contacted by potential cybercriminal’
Qantas says it has been contacted by “a potential cybercriminal”, less than a week after the data of up to 6 million of its customers was accessed in an online attack.
The airline says it is working to verify the legitimacy of the contact and has engaged the Australian Federal Police to investigate.
Qantas continues to say it is working with “specialist cybersecurity experts” to analyse systems impacted in the breach and to protect customer information.
Read more from Luke Cooper.
ICYMI: Alan Kohler’s Finance Report
Why house prices are tipped to keep rising
The Reserve Bank‘s Monetary Policy Board is meeting to decide on interest rates. It is widely expected to cut the cash rate to 3.6 per cent, saving a typical mortgage borrower hundreds of dollars a year.
While it’s welcome news for millions of borrowers, it’s a double-edged sword for first home buyers with property prices tipped to pick up further as a result.
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Economists say lower inflation and a sluggish economy support the case for the RBA to lower the cash rate. Cotality’s head of research Australia, Eliza Owen, says since rates started to decline, home values in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth have risen by more than 2 per cent.
Property prices, she said, could go higher as interest rates fall. She says a reduction in interest rates is like a price cut on the cost of debt, as it increases the maximum people can borrow for mortgages, which usually pushes property values higher.
Two more rate cuts expected in 2025, says CBA chief economist
While some economists are forecasting as many as four more cuts this interest rate cycle, Commonwealth Bank chief economist Luke Yeaman says the Reserve Bank will cut rates just two more times – on July 8 and August 12.
He tells The Business host Kirsten Aiken he thinks the RBA will want to see how the economy plays out over the next six to 12 months before making another move. Mr Yeaman says rate cuts could add to the momentum that’s already been seen in house price growth.
The RBA’s interest rate decision will come just one day before US President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline, and Mr Yeaman says to date, Australia has been very well insulated from the broader shocks.
However, he says tariff wars could have some impact on the investment climate and possibly the consumer, but doesn’t think it’s going to derail the economic recovery in Australia over the course of the next year.
He says the CBA will be watching closely to see how consumers and businesses react to tariff changes, but also for any more deterioration of the US economy, which will affect Australia’s biggest trading partner China.
How has the RBA’s cash rate been tracking?
Bets are for a 0.25 percentage point cut this afternoon — that would take it from 3.85 per cent (its first time below 4 per cent in two years), to 3.6 per cent.
The last time the cash rate sat at 3.6 per cent was in April 2023.
This chart tells the story:
Musk’s political plan hits Tesla
Tesla shares sank overnight after CEO Elon Musk said he was forming a new US political party.
The S&P 500’s biggest drag came from shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla, which dived 6.8% to $US293.94 a share, after Mr Musk announced formation of a new political party named the “America Party“, further escalating his feud with Trump.
It was Tesla’s biggest daily slide since June 5, and its lowest closing level since that session.
with Reuters
The countdown is on: RBA decision to be delivered at 2:30pm AEST
Set your clocks! Or don’t, just hang here through the day — as well as our usual markets and business news updates, we’ll be bringing you comprehensive coverage of the Reserve Bank board’s latest interest rate decision at 2:30pm AEST today.
That’ll be across all platforms, including here on the blog and on ABC News Channel.
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Wall Street knocked lower by tariff jitters
Wall Street’s major indexes closed sharply lower on Monday, after US President Donald Trump announced hefty tariffs against Japan, South Korea and other trading partners.
Indexes added to losses after Trump announced the tariff rates against Japanese and South Korean imports, due to take effect on August 1.
Stocks wobbled further in the late afternoon when he announced hefty tariffs on Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos and Myanmar.
Last week, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 ended three sessions with record high closes. The latest record finishes came on Thursday after a robust jobs report.
“Markets had been telling us that peak tariff risk is behind us, but to have tariffs back in the forefront is causing some skittishness,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments in Boston.
“Investors were getting to that period of ebullience in markets and we’re taking a little step back from that.”
But investors likely have some hopes the announcements are not permanent, she said: “That’s the pattern we’ve been in, announcing punitive tariffs and then dialing that back a little bit. That could certainly be the next phase of this back and forth negotiation.”
Investors also awaited other US trade announcements after Trump said on Sunday that the US was on the cusp of several deals and would notify other countries of higher tariffs by July 9, with new duties to take effect on August 1.
On Monday, Trump threatened an extra 10% tariff on countries aligning themselves with the “Anti-American policies” of the BRICS group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
With Reuters
ASX to fall
Good morning and welcome to Tuesday’s markets live blog, where we’ll bring you the latest price action and news on the ASX and beyond.
A tumble on Wall Street overnight sets the tone for local market action today.
The Dow Jones index dropped 0.9 per cent, the S&P 500 lost 0.8 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.9 per cent.
ASX futures were down 49 points or 0.5 per cent to 8,524 at 7:00am AEST.
At the same time, the Australian dollar was up 0.1 per cent to 64.93 US cents.
Brent crude oil was up 1.8 per cent, trading at $US69.56 a barrel.
Spot gold was flat at $US3,336.31.
Iron ore lost 0.6 per cent to $US95.25 a tonne.
