Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emerged from meetings with President Trump this week expressing skepticism about achieving a comprehensive agreement with Iran, while simultaneously acknowledging alignment with the U.S. On increasing pressure on Tehran. Netanyahu told reporters Thursday that any potential deal “must include the elements that are important to Israel: not only the nuclear program, but also the ballistic missiles, and also the Iranian proxies.”
The exchange comes as Iran’s national security chief, Ali Larijani, issued a warning that Tehran would strike U.S. Bases in the region if attacked, according to reports. This escalating rhetoric underscores the heightened tensions in the Middle East and the potential for miscalculation, particularly as the U.S. Continues to deploy military assets to the region.
Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Norm Roule, assessed the current situation, noting the Trump administration’s focus on avoiding a costly regional war, maintaining open sea lanes, and stabilizing energy markets. Roule, now a geopolitical and energy consultant, highlighted a consistent goal across administrations: preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, constraining its missile programs, and ending its support for terrorism.
“The current approach addresses areas where there are different views on the balance between nonproliferation and broader regional issues, and on whether to resolve the nuclear issue first and address other issues later, or to handle them together,” Roule said in an interview with The Cipher Brief. He emphasized the importance of national interests and security in shaping foreign policy, acknowledging the humanitarian concerns surrounding the Iranian regime’s actions against protestors but cautioning against intervention without a clear strategy for success.
Roule pointed to the June 2025 “Twelve-Day War” as having significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear capabilities, though he cautioned that those capabilities could be rebuilt. He suggested that, absent a diplomatic agreement preventing reconstruction, either Israel or the U.S. May need to consider military action in the future to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions. He also highlighted concerns about Iran’s ballistic missile program, noting a Defense Intelligence Assessment from May 2025 that estimated Iran could potentially build sixty intercontinental ballistic missiles by 2035.
“The idea that anyone would allow a country with Iran’s political, military, and nuclear history to build dozens of potentially nuclear-tipped ICBMs within nine years should not be acceptable,” Roule stated. He outlined three potential paths forward: compelling Iran to alter its missile program, building a costly missile shield with European partners, or destroying the program militarily.
Roule detailed what he described as Iran’s significant losses over the past two years, including the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, a low turnout in subsequent elections, and a struggling economy with an inflation rate of 43 percent as of December 2025. The Iranian rial has also experienced a substantial decline, reaching 1.63 million to the dollar. He also noted Israel’s success in eliminating key commanders of Iran’s proxy partners and the failure of Russia and China to provide meaningful support to Iran during recent conflicts.
Despite these challenges, Roule acknowledged the Iranian regime’s resilience and its ability to maintain power through repression and a complex system of patronage. He suggested that the regime believes it can survive and even thrive by threatening asymmetric responses, such as attacks on U.S. Bases, disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, and cyberattacks, should it be attacked.
The Trump administration, Roule said, continues to pursue a strategy of combining diplomatic pressure, economic sanctions, and the threat of military action to compel Iran to change its behavior. The administration has deployed a significant military force to the region and is urging regional partners to increase pressure on Tehran. The timeline for a potential military strike remains uncertain, dependent on Iran’s decisions, input from allies, and evolving political conditions in the U.S.
Roule assessed that Iran is simultaneously working to end protests, improve its military capabilities, and develop a diplomatic strategy to delay any potential U.S. Military action. He indicated that Tehran is unlikely to make significant concessions in the near term, focusing instead on buying time and preventing the formation of a united international front against it.