Moody’s

There is concern, as I learn, among those who were expecting a move from Moody’s.

It is not that he did not give the investment grade to Greece. After all, Greek assets, i.e. bonds, move as if the country has an investment grade.
As it has, after all, from the other houses.

What Moody’s is trying to say

So what is it that Moody’s sees and doesn’t give IG?

This is what my source from a large listed company asked, seeing that the Greek economy is in a situation where if you are optimistic you see the grade, but if you are strict you expect more to give it.

He doesn’t expect much…

Of course, Moody’s itself admitted that it does not expect much for the chronic weaknesses of our country.

Especially in the judicial system and the diversification of the economy, so that the trade deficit is not so “open”.

Well… that’s why he focused on the banking industry, which has made “herculean” progress in recent years.

And the final stretch

After all, attention will continue to be in the banking industry in the next period, since within the week, or at the latest, the HFSF will be informed by JP Morgan about the interest it has registered for the placement in the National Bank.

After all, it is something that the entire stock market is waiting for and has been waiting for lately.

Percentage… and strategic investor

Everything indicates that the Greek State will allocate up to 13% of the total 18% it still owns in the bank.

The exact percentage is still a big question, as there has been a suggestion that a large part should be given to a strategic investor, if possible in a large European bank.

However, it is not certain whether this suggestion was taken into account by the final decision team.

Price

Now the price at which the placement will take place is the second big question mark.

With this the proposals on the table show a range of 7.50 euros to 8 euros per share.

Clearly the HFSF wants the upper limit, or around it, but the “candidates” want lower.

In fact, as a market person commented to me, the pressure on the stock recently was a “game” of potential buyers to get a better price for their purchase.

It reached 7.30 euros, after a series of bearish sessions, from 8.22 euros it was on August 23.

It is also characteristic that in September, it has only had three bull sessions, two of which with marginal gains.

Nasty things

Difficult year for the dairy market. Consumers are struggling.

And consequently businesses in the industry suffer!

Except, of course, those that have an export activity and cover the losses of the Greek market.

Especially the “drinking milk” category is under pressure.

Volume is down but turnover is down too. Despite the fact that prices have fallen.

The best buy ever is yogurt which has positive signs and high percentages in both sizes!

Socially, however, the most worrying thing is the decrease in volume, given that this is a basic low-priced product! You get it….

The milk is leaking

According to Circana data, the drinking milk category in the January-August period lost 1.1% of its volume – and worst – 6.6% of its sales value.

That is, of her turnover!

The biggest losses were experienced by the vapore, with a negative development of 5.3% in volume and 8.6% in value.

Pasteurized milk follows with volume losses of 1.3% and 6.6% of sales.

And in third place is highly pasteurized milk with an increase(!) of 0.8% in volume, but a decrease of 4.7% in sales!

Competition in cheeses

The category of cheese products is developing better than drinking milk, a positive sign in both sizes, but as market sources tell me, consumer “fatigue” has driven down prices.

Thus volume increased by 4.1%, but value by only 0.9%. This situation also prevails in yellow cheeses, but also in feta….

Yogurt “charges”

On the contrary, the yogurt category escapes the rather “miserable” situation of the two aforementioned categories.

Thus its volume increased by 9.2% and its sales by 8.8%. Of course, desserts are the biggest hit with consumers!

Now of course in the other categories, it is worth noting that the volume and sales of cream increased, while for butter both sizes had a negative sign!

Fortunately exports

With these and with those, however, in the end, the dairy industries manage to make positive figures from the exports of feta cheese and yogurt.

Because if they expected from the Greek market…

H FrieslandCampina

FrieslandCampina “raised” its balance sheet. In 2023. And for one more year it recorded losses.

As they tell me, this fact is primarily due to the fact that the company – which has a production activity in Greece, in Patras – addresses the internal market.

And the Greek market for dairy products is “straining” a lot.

The evaporator has fallen and the cheese market has been hit by the reduction in prices due to competition, what can yogurt do to you alone?

Right!

Better this year

Things this year seem to “run” somewhat better.

And the management of the company has high expectations from the new series of yogurt desserts that has been released in the last months on the market.

But the most important thing is that he also started exporting them. Even if this is a “breather” for the troubled “bottom line” of the balance sheet!

In fact, it is estimated that this year the Dutch cooperative company, which closes 20 years of its productive activity in Patras, will manage to come out “in the same boat in the same water” at the end of the year!