Minsk

A rocket from the territory of Ukraine fell on December 29 in the territory of Belarus, reported “BelTA” agency. The fall was recorded between 10.00 and 11.00 local time. The President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko was informed about the incident. On his behalf, a group of employees of the Ministry of Defense and the Investigative Commission are working to clarify the circumstances of the missile fall.

According to preliminary data, no one was injured in the accident. Immediately following the crash, BelTA reported that two versions of the crash were being considered. The missile may have entered the country by accident, by analogy with the incident with the fall of the missiles in Poland. According to another version, they could be fragments of a rocket shot down as a result of the operation of the air defense system (air defense) of Belarus.

Subsequently, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus issued a statement. The rocket fell near the village of Gorbakha in the Ivanovsky district of the Brest region bordering Ukraine in the south-west of the republic, its fragments were found in an agricultural field, the ministry said. “During the verification activities, it was preliminarily established that the wreckage belonged to the S-300 anti-aircraft guided missile launched from the territory of Ukraine,” the report said.

“Judging by the published photos, we are talking about fragments from which almost a whole 5V55 missile can be assembled for the first modifications of the S-300 air defense systems,” says Vedomosti’s source in the Russian defense industry. Theoretically, it is possible to shoot down such a complex target as a 5V55 missile, but for this you need to be very lucky: you need to successfully match the location of the air defense systems and the missile’s course, he explains.

Earlier, the same Soviet-made missile used by Ukrainian air defenses fell in Poland. This incident occurred on November 15 and resulted in the deaths of two people. At the time, the Russian Defense Ministry identified the wreckage in photographs of the missile crash site in Poland as elements of the Ukrainian S-300 missile system. The department stressed that all statements by foreign politicians and Ukrainian sources about the fall of alleged Russian missiles in Poland are “a deliberate provocation with the aim of aggravating the situation”.

Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots Leonid Kalashnikov (KPRF) refrained from predicting the consequences of the incident in the Brest region, noting that “it was not a citizen of Belarus” and officials of the republic should give an assessment. “In this situation [надо выяснять]how random are these missiles dropped by the Ukrainians and what danger is there in the future. Belarusians, of course, need to evaluate and state their position,” he told Vedomosti.

“This case definitely does not lead to an escalation. <…> This proves to everyone that the continuation of the conflict and the unwillingness of Ukraine to accept our conditions does not lead to anything good. And until they agree to our conditions, this mess will continue,” Andrey Kartapolov, chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, told Vedomosti. According to him, it’s hard to say what Minsk’s reaction will be: “I think the appropriate measures to strengthen air defense, security and cover the state border will definitely be taken by the leadership of Belarus”.

To understand the political consequences of the missile crash, it is necessary to understand what happened: was it a deliberate provocation when the missile was sent towards Belarus, or was this missile trying to shoot down a Russian target, but self-destructed when it missed? , agrees a military expert, editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine Alexey Leonkov. He is sure that Minsk will not enter into a special military operation, no matter how much it is provoked.

“You have to understand the military potential of Belarus. His army was created for defense. In terms of numbers, personnel, it can defend itself, but it will not conduct offensive operations, ”Leonkov believes.

Everything will be limited to rhetoric, military expert Ruslan Pukhov is sure of this. “Belarus does not want to get directly involved in the conflict. De jure Lukashenka is a military ally of Russia, but de facto he is neutral,” he believes.

5 December Moldovan border police discovered a rocket crashed near the city of Briceni, in the north of the country, near the border with Ukraine. The area where the rocket was found has been cordoned off and border police have increased their patrols. There have been no official reports on the ownership of the rocket and the circumstances of the accident from the Moldovan authorities.