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Chancellor Olaf Solz is changing “course” on immigration, putting “Schengen at risk”, as the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk complains, under the weight of the – expected – victory of the Alternative for Germany in Thuringia, first of all, in the first “resounding” victory of the extreme right after World War II in the country – something that, however, is expected to be repeated in Brandenburg on the 22nd of the month.

It has, however, already been announced the intention to extend the temporary border controls to all land borders of the country, from September 16 and for six months. Controls, in addition to Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria and Switzerland, are expected to be extended to the borders with France, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Denmark, with ominous predictions for the countries receiving refugees on European soil , like Greece.

“What the new immigration package will be for both the migrants and the neighboring countries that are already reacting is something that I can’t put my finger on, as it is not yet clear what will actually change or not. Discussions are still ongoing and decisions have not been finalized. However, the reasons for the attempted reform are many”, Max Steinhardt, professor at the Freie University of Berlin, with extensive research work on Immigration, underlines in Vima.

The drivers of tightening

Although he finds it difficult to determine the driving factors behind the tightening (as the main reasons for the new measures, the reduction of irregular immigration and “dealing with the Islamist threat after the terrorist attack in Solingen, rather than the polling of the three parties” were officially presented of co-government, and the recent results in the local elections of Thuringia and Saxony with the triumph of the extreme right), “a turning point in the public debate”, the German professor believes, were the recent murderous attacks in Solingen, the second serious attack by refugees to locals after the Mannheim attack.

At the same time, however, a role in the developments, Max Steinhardt estimates, was also played by “the high electoral results of the Alternative for Germany (AFD) and the Logic and Justice (BSW) of the former member of parliament of the left party Die Linke, Sarah Wagenknecht, in parallel with the very bad results of all three governing parties in Thuringia and Saxony”.

“Brandenburg on the following Sunday, the 22nd of the month, is very likely to reproduce a similar electoral pattern, with the dominance of the Alternative for Germany”, predicts the researcher, also pointing out the “big debate” which, in any case, has been triggered regarding ” with refugees living on public benefits. Public pressure has increased, with many newspapers and journalists, including those more left-leaning, calling for changes to asylum policies. They often refer to countries like Denmark, where social democrats have significantly tightened immigration and asylum regulations in recent years.”

The rise of anti-immigration parties

Another “broad pattern” behind the anti-immigration debate that has started, our interlocutor speculates, is “the disappointment and bitterness of some citizens. Across Europe, the rise of anti-immigration parties has shifted the political spectrum towards more restrictive policies than those adopted since the 1980s. The financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 and the subsequent Great Recession increased public opposition to immigration in several European countries and the United States, while Germany, which weathered the crisis better than other countries, held roughly the same stance until refugee crisis”.

Currently, the “policy change” in Germany that “will gain momentum,” according to Max Steinhardt, is “extra-territorial asylum procedures. In other words, the physical relocation of asylum procedures to countries outside the EU, while the law, in this case, of Germany continues to apply.” “This would be a major policy change with many challenges and potential problems,” admits the German academic. “However, there are many arguments in favor of this solution”, he emphasizes. “A key argument is that this would probably reduce the number of deaths in the Mediterranean Sea. Another concerns justice and selection of refugees, as it would make it easier for the poor, women, children and the elderly to apply for asylum.”

“I believe that we have to see the developments within the political context, and especially through the lens of the electoral victory and success of the extreme right (Alternative for Germany), two weeks ago, in Saxony and Thuringia. The increase in her votes is significant, which is reflected on a pan-German level, according to Gallop in both East and West Germany.

The debate in Germany about immigrants

This is where this political debate in Germany on immigrants has started, with all the major parties, from Sarah Wagenknecht’s Reason and Justice, the Christian Democratic Union, to the Social Democratic Party of Germany and the Free Democratic Party FDP competing for tougher laws for immigrants”, the Historian and director of the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation’s office in Athens, Boris Kantschleiter, points out to Vima.

“The Greens are divided,” he adds. “Only Die Linke (Left) is against stricter laws. To be sure, the late tussle between the parties over who will come up with the toughest anti-immigration proposal to rid the country of illegal immigration is due to the belief that the Alternative for Germany has achieved recent victories because of its anti-immigration rhetoric. Therefore, the reaction of the other parties to her success is to copy her policies.”
He does not consider the “damage” to have been caused by Angela Merkel’s pro-immigration policies.

“Ten years ago, when the then Chancellor opened the borders of German society for Syrian immigrants, there was a great wave of solidarity, for those who came from a war zone, even though this also coexisted with a large part of society that was against immigration.”

What happened in between? “We had an economic crisis with Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. German society was under pressure. The government has been following austerity policies for two years, taking measures to reduce its expenses. Therefore, we experience in all fields, in education, in the public works sector – a bridge collapsed in Dresden due to its lack of maintenance and restoration -, in the health sector, etc. cuts and less investment.

German citizens see their future threatened by the economic crisis and feel insecure because of violence in the public sphere by individual immigrants – as, a few weeks ago, with the murders in Solingen, which were duly instrumentalized by the yellow German press, presenting as serious the threat of immigrants to German society”.

However, exactly what the German far-right is “stepping on” for its anti-immigrant hysteria, Kanchleiter continues, “managing with extraordinary success to manipulate public sentiment against immigrants, something they try to appropriate with their harsh political proposals for the immigration parties I mentioned above. Germans are not racist.

In this particular political context, racist feelings are being successfully awakened by the Far Right”, emphasizes the German historian, who does not consider it a coincidence that according to a recent poll, 77% of the respondents request a change in the German immigration and asylum policy.

“What will finally be put forward for a vote remains open,” the German interlocutor nevertheless warns us, although, he adds, “we can see the general trends. Germany has already decided to reintroduce border controls on the borders with neighboring states, which with Schengen have been abolished, with strict policing. Illegal immigrants will not be able to enter German territory and will be sent back to the European countries they first entered. Therefore, Greece will be a country that welcomes them back.”

Will the harsh measures that abolish Schengen pass?

For this reason, continues the director of the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation branch in Athens, “Kyriakos Mitsotakis is reacting. Although, I repeat, nothing has yet been fully “locked in”, they are still in negotiations”.

“However, if the harsh measures that abolish Schengen are finally approved, the forces and dynamics of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany will not decrease, nor will the other parties absorb its forces,” he predicts. “What it seems is that as long as the political Center moves to the right on immigration, the Alternative for Germany will move further to the right.

At the end of the day”, summarizes Dr. of History, “nothing will be saved, nor will it be corrected with the specific policies. In the elections in September 2025, it is very likely that AfD will achieve a very good result again, and the Christian Democratic Union will probably take over the government. The percentages of the governing coalition, based on the gallop polls, are falling”

And in the federal states “in the future, the cooperation of the Christian Democratic Union with the far-right Alternative for Germany will be discussed, going to Germany as well, after Austria, France and so on. towards its full normalization”, he summarizes.