JPMorgan Chase has significantly raised its forecast for U.S. Home price growth in 2026, now predicting an increase of between 10 percent and 15 percent, a substantial jump from its previous estimate of 5 percent to 7 percent. The revised outlook, published Sunday, cites accelerating price momentum and a shift toward an expansion phase in the property cycle.
The upward revision follows an initial forecast from Morgan Stanley in January, which predicted a 10 percent increase in home prices, a figure considered aggressive at the time. Subsequent data has indicated a strengthening recovery in the housing market, prompting other financial institutions to also adjust their 2026 estimates.
According to JPMorgan, a robust stock market is a key driver of the anticipated price increases, alongside strong demand from both domestic buyers and those from mainland China. Karl Chan, head of Hong Kong property research at JPMorgan, stated, “We believe a strong stock market will continue to push up Hong Kong home prices.”
The forecast contrasts with earlier expectations of a stalled housing market. J.P. Morgan Global Research had previously indicated U.S. House prices would remain flat in 2026, with any gains in demand offsetting increased supply. However, the latest analysis suggests a more dynamic market environment.
While the Trump administration has introduced two novel housing reforms, JPMorgan’s assessment suggests their impact on affordability will be limited. The bank anticipates a decline in adjustable-rate mortgages as the Federal Reserve lowers borrowing costs, even as the 30-year fixed rate remains above 6 percent. Homebuilders are also expected to continue offering rate buydowns to reduce mortgage rates and clear existing inventory.
The revised forecast acknowledges regional disparities. JPMorgan Global Research identifies the West Coast and Sunbelt as areas experiencing the quickest price declines. Specifically, data from Zillow indicates Texas home prices are down 2.4 percent year-over-year, while Florida home prices have fallen 5.1 percent. This regional weakness is attributed to a surge in housing supply during the pandemic-era construction boom.
Despite the overall positive revision, the housing market remains sensitive to economic conditions. Factors such as labor shortages and tariffs could continue to exert upward pressure on home prices, even as the pace of increases has recently slowed, according to Morgan Stanley’s 10-year outlook.