Election Overview

Filipino voters cast thier ballots to fill 12 of the 24 Senate seats, elect over 300 representatives, and choose local leaders and councilors across provinces, cities, and towns. in total, more than 18,200 positions were up for grabs.

senate race: Key Players and Initial Results

• As of 8 a.m., with over 80% of unofficial votes counted, candidates backed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. are projected to secure 5 Senate seats.
• vice President Sarah Duterte’s endorsed candidates are expected to win two seats, ranking first and third in the count.
• Camille Villar, a Senate candidate ranked 10th, received endorsements from both the Marcos and duterte families but is believed to align with the Duterte camp.
• Imee Marcos, President Marcos’s elder sister, is tentatively within the top 12 but appears to be shifting towards the Duterte side, reportedly due to dissatisfaction with President Marcos’s leadership style.

Duterte’s Response and Future opposition

Sarah Duterte issued a statement acknowledging that the election results were not as they expected. Though,she emphasized that this marks a new beginning and called for the formation of a strong and principled opposition camp to jointly supervise the government.

Impeachment Threat and Political stakes

The Senate is expected to commence impeachment proceedings against Sarah Duterte in June, stemming from corruption allegations and reported threats against President Marcos. According to the Philippine Constitution, a two-thirds vote in the Senate is required for impeachment, meaning Duterte needs the support of at least 9 senators to avoid removal from office.

Senate composition: A Shifting Landscape

• Of the 12 new Senate seats, 5 are likely to support President Marcos, and 2 are expected to back Duterte. The political leanings of the remaining candidates remain uncertain.
• Among the 12 incumbent senators, one is a known Duterte supporter, while the allegiances of the othre 11 are unclear.However, five have historically leaned towards Marcos, and two towards duterte.

Political Analysis: Marcos Ahead, Duterte Still Strong

Political analysts note that the Philippines’ multi-party system frequently enough leads to politicians changing parties or political stances based on their interests and public opinion, making precise headcounts challenging. however, the Marcos camp currently holds an advantage, while the Duterte family retains a significant base of popular support.

Duterte’s Enduring Influence

Despite facing scrutiny from the International Criminal Court at The Hague for alleged human rights violations during his presidency, Rodrigo Duterte was re-elected as mayor in his hometown of Namao. Moreover, candidates from the Duterte camp secured the first and third positions in the Senate re-election votes. Duterte Youth also currently ranks second in the “Party-list” social group election.

Looking Ahead to 2028

Observers suggest that while the marcos camp currently has the upper hand, the Duterte camp’s strong support base ensures that the political trajectories of both families remain uncertain leading up to the 2028 presidential election.