Iran Nuclear Talks Loom as Tensions Simmer

U.S. Envoy set to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister amidst escalating concerns over nuclear program.

As nuclear negotiations loom, tensions are escalating with Iran, who stated it will not halt uranium enrichment. Meanwhile, an alleged Israeli strike struck a facility linked to Iran’s weapons program. Here’s the latest.

Iran’s Red Lines

**Majid Takht Ravanchi**, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister, told NBC News on July 3 that Iran is open to resuming nuclear negotiations but “has no plans to stop uranium enrichment.” He added that before Iran agrees to engage in talks, the United States will have to “convince” Iran that it will not use force.

According to *Axios*, **Steve Witkoff**, White House Envoy, is expected to meet next week in Oslo, Norway with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister **Abbas Araghchi**. However, a Western news correspondent in Tehran reported that while preparations are underway for “indirect” negotiations during the meeting, it has not been finalized.

Israeli Response

**Israel Katz**, Israeli Defense Minister, stated on July 3 that Israel must maintain air superiority over Iranian airspace to prevent Iran from rebuilding its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. **Katz** had previously announced on June 27 that he would pursue a policy of “enforcement” to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear program.

**Araghchi** warned on June 26 that Iran would respond to any Israeli violation of the ceasefire, adding that “Iran is not Lebanon.” Since November 2025, Israel has conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah across Lebanon, reportedly to prevent Hezbollah from reconstituting. Iran likely fears Israel will attempt to conduct similar strikes within its borders.

Suspected Israeli Strike on Iranian Facility

An Israeli strike on June 16 targeted an Iranian facility involved in nuclear weapons testing, likely disrupting Iran’s ability to produce advanced explosive components. The targeted facility, the Shahid Meisami Group in Karaj, Alborz Province, is reportedly involved in Iran’s chemical weapons program.

Satellite imagery from July 1 shows multiple buildings at the facility were destroyed in the airstrikes. This includes a hangar-type building constructed between 2021 and 2024, reportedly used to produce plastic explosives and advanced materials for nuclear detonation testing. The group is subordinate to the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), which played a leading role in the Iranian nuclear weapons research program before 2003.

IAEA Inspectors Withdraw

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) withdrew all IAEA inspectors from Iran, effectively ending international oversight of Iran’s nuclear program. The IAEA reported on July 4 that its inspectors left Iran due to safety concerns, as Iranian officials and regime-linked media issued death threats and harassed IAEA Director **Rafael Grossi** in recent weeks.

Adding to the concern, Iran’s Guardian Council approved a law on June 26 that suspends cooperation with the agency and bars inspectors from nuclear facilities. Before Iran allows the IAEA to resume inspections, the bill requires the IAEA to recognize Iran’s right to enrich uranium. **Esmaeil Baghaei**, Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson, accused the IAEA on June 30 of “mistakes” that had “consequences” and made “bilateral cooperation…irrational.”

Other Developments

Iranian media released footage on June 30 showing construction crews repairing the runway at the Artesh Air Force 2nd Tactical Airbase (TAB) in Tabriz. Repairs to the base, which sustained at least eight bomb hits on its runway and taxiways on June 12 and 13, should be completed very quickly.

According to open-source watchers on social media and the *Aviationist*, the airbase houses three Iranian squadrons, the 21st, 22nd, and 23rd Tactical Fighter Squadrons, that fly the MiG-29 and F-5 fighter jets. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Iran’s air force possesses limited operational capabilities due to aging equipment and maintenance challenges (CSIS, 2023).

Drone Attack in Erbil

On July 3, likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militants launched a one-way drone that probably targeted the Erbil International Airport in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan Region. The Kurdistan Regional Government’s Counter-Terrorism Group reported that the drone was intercepted near the airport.

Erbil International Airport hosts US forces that are part of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition. The drone did not cause any casualties or damage, and no group has claimed responsibility for the attack. From June 12-24, likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have conducted multiple one-way drone attacks targeting US positions across Iraq. It is believed that the militias may suffer from a lack of discipline among lower-ranking fighters who attempted to independently launch drone attacks.

Iran’s Ex-President Eyes Political Comeback Amid Post-War Challenges

Hardliners Push Back as **Rouhani** Seeks Reform; New Military Appointment Signals Security Focus

As Iran navigates the aftermath of recent conflicts, former President **Hassan Rouhani** appears to be maneuvering for a return to the political stage, advocating for reforms and improved public trust, moves that are reportedly facing resistance from hardline rivals within the regime.

**Rouhani** Calls for Reform

**Rouhani** is reportedly presenting the post-war period as an opportunity to reform governance and restore public trust. In a June 24 statement, **Rouhani** described the crisis as an opportunity to “rebuild the foundations of governance.” He previously lobbied senior clerics in Qom to pressure Supreme Leader **Ali Khamenei** to accept a ceasefire. According to recent reports, **Rouhani** emphasized the need for a resilient economy and mutual trust between the state and society.

Hardliner Opposition

These efforts by **Rouhani** have triggered concern among hardline rivals. Statements criticizing **Rouhani** and his moderate stance have been circulating among regime hardliners, including **Alireza Zakani**, the mayor of Tehran. Jahan News, an outlet affiliated with **Zakani**, recently resurfaced an old remark by IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General **Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh** criticizing **Rouhani’s** government for opposing missile tests and military exercises.

Tabnak, linked to former IRGC Commander **Mohsen Rezaei**, accused **Rouhani** on July 1 of “strategic betrayal” for canceling a Chinese fighter jet deal. An Iranian source told Newsweek that the regime is focused on “national unity, rebuilding capacities, and reinforcing strategic doctrines.”

Potential Alliances

**Rouhani** may seek to collaborate with regime members who possess larger power bases. Despite being disqualified from the Assembly of Experts election in January 2024, **Rouhani** has leaned on his connections with the **Larijani** family. He, along with **Ali Larijani** and Expediency Council Chairman **Sadegh Amoli Larijani**, reportedly attempted to contact **Khamenei** during the Israel-Iran War to encourage renewed talks with the United States. He could also try to work with other moderate actors in the regime, including President **Masoud Pezeshkian**.

New Commander Appointed

Supreme Leader **Ali Khamenei** has reportedly appointed **Ali Abdollahi Ali Abadi** as the new Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander. **Ali Abadi** previously served as the Armed Forces General Staff coordination deputy since 2016. Throughout his career, **Ali Abadi** has held leadership roles in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and several internal security positions. The United States sanctioned **Ali Abadi** in January 2020 for his involvement in the Iranian ballistic missile attack targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Iraq in 2020.

Nuclear Negotiations Stalled

The G7 nations reaffirmed their stance that Iran “can never have nuclear weapons” in a joint statement issued July 1. The G7 ministers urged Iran to refrain from reconstituting its “unjustified enrichment activities.” These statements align with previous G7 and E3 statements. As of July 2024, Iran has over 120 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% purity, a level that is not allowed (IAEA Report 2024).

European Role in Question

**Abbas Araghchi**, Iran’s Foreign Affairs Minister, has cast doubt on the possibility of European involvement in future nuclear negotiations. Following a phone call with EU Foreign Policy Chief **Kaja Kallas**, **Araghchi** stated on X that the European Union and the United Kingdom’s participation in any future negotiations is “irrelevant and therefore meaningless.”

Constructive phone call with FM @kallaspik on EU-Iran relations, incl regional situation & JCPOA. 🇪🇺 stands ready to facilitate a way forward. I urged 🇮🇷 to immediately resume negotiations.#EstoniaUNSC

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) July 1, 2025

**Araghchi** said that **Kallas** “disregards the provisions of the” Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Senior Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that Iran will not accept demands for zero uranium enrichment.