Rome – A chorus of indignation from the opposition has met the electoral law deposited on Thursday, but behind the public outcry lies a calculated political game. With a referendum looming, the stated aim is to maintain a combative stance; any potential for dialogue, as candidly admitted by Nicola Fratoianni, has been postponed until March 24th. Alessandro Battilocchio, who worked on the new legislation for Forza Italia, confirmed this, stating, “We have reached a synthesis on a text that aims to ensure governability for the winning coalition. Parliament will conduct further analysis, but the majority is fully prepared for discussion.” Yet, the fervor surrounding the referendum demands high decibel levels against what the governing coalition’s opponents are calling “authoritarian fantasies.”
The word most frequently used on the center-left is now “fraud.” From Parrini to Orlando, passing through Nardella and Magi, the sentiment is unanimous. Giuseppe Conte went further, speaking of a “super-fraud,” denouncing “a majority bonus that gifts over 100 parliamentarians to the coalition that takes 40% of the vote.” This accusation is partially accurate, as the figure is reached by summing the seats in both chambers of parliament. Ironically, the particularly mechanism – already under scrutiny from constitutional scholars – risks being insufficient for any coalition that narrowly misses the 41% threshold needed to achieve an absolute majority, falling short of 201 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
More than the bonus itself, the progressive front is attacking the return to preference voting and the prospect of a parliament of “appointed” members. This criticism is somewhat disingenuous, considering that party headquarters have historically distanced themselves from influencing candidate selection. However, for the Democratic Party (PD), the objective is concrete: by fielding strong candidates in local areas, they hope to offset the loss of single-member constituencies. The political stakes remain high.
Giovanni Donzelli (FdI) has promised an ad hoc amendment – circumventing the resistance from the League and Forza Italia that Giorgia Meloni previously encountered – a move echoed by Noi Moderati and UDC. The possibility of a parliamentary upset exists, but it remains to be seen how eager the Meloni-led faction truly is to push for a reform that would primarily benefit the PD. It is unlikely that the League will accept such a concession, risking a further reduction in their parliamentary representation.
Matteo Salvini has stated his willingness to accept sacrifices “as long as stability is ensured,” but his stance on preference voting is different. Massimiliano Fedriga, the governor of Friuli Venezia Giulia, dismissed them outright as “distorting.”
Beyond the routine barricades, the core of the “Stabilicum” law is not entirely unfavorable to the opposition. They would have preferred to retain the Rosatellum law; according to Youtrend, without the self-inflicted wounds of the 2022 divisions, a united center-left would currently have a strong chance of achieving parity in the single-member constituencies. According to current polling averages, with the new rules, the center-right would obtain 228 seats (including 70 from the bonus) in the Chamber of Deputies, compared to 147 for the progressives (excluding Action); in the Senate, the outcome would be 113 (35 from the bonus) to 76. Under the Rosatellum law, the result would be a nail-biting contest: 192 to 186 for the center-left in the Chamber, and 96 to 95 for the center-right in the Senate.
However, no one on the left believes in voting for a law that favors the governing coalition. The PD even has good reason to be optimistic: the center-right is open to negotiation on the bonus, and a return to pure proportional representation would give the Democrats a substantial parliamentary presence. As for Conte, the “super-fraud” turns out to be an opportunity: the law requires the indication of the coalition leader – a role he believes is rightfully his – an issue that Elly Schlein has consistently sought to defuse.
the potential runoff election, by forcing alliances, becomes a powerful tool for the former prime minister to leverage in the leadership race. Finally, the electoral threshold reassures Renzi and Calenda, and even Avs sees some benefit. For now, it is pure theater. The bill, deposited in haste, contains significant gaps that must be addressed, but one thing is certain: until March 24th, no one will reveal their hand.