Post-election situation between the US, China and Taiwan Dai Jie: Beijing can tolerate Lai Qingde serving one term, the US is worried about the Legislative Yuan
Compiled by: Tianxia Editorial Department Picture source: Photo by Wang Jiandong
In 2024, the two presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States will not only determine the prospects of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, but will also affect the world situation. Jacques deLisle, one of the few experts in the American academic community who understands both the United States, China and Taiwan and the director of the Center for Contemporary China Studies at the University of Pennsylvania, provided a first-hand analysis of Taiwan’s post-election situation at the 2024 World Economic Forum (CWEF) winter session.
After Taiwanโs presidential election, there are some certain things and some uncertainties regarding U.S.-China-Taiwan relations.
For sure, Lai Ching-te said that he will continue Tsai Ing-wen’s line, promote cross-strait relations under the constitutional system of the Republic of China, maintain the status quo and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait; strengthen Taiwan’s ability to deter threats from China; safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty without declaring formal independence, We are willing to dialogue with Beijing without political conditions and reciprocity and dignity.
Taiwan will also continue to strengthen cooperation with democratic countries with similar ideals, including the United States. Taiwan’s greatest guarantee when facing China is that it has strong support from countries that do not have formal diplomatic relations and that Taiwan has shown itself to be a responsible participant in international affairs.
Two major uncertainties for the Lai government
Uncertain things include who will be in Lai Qingde’s national security team? How many people from Tsai Ing-wenโs team will stay? Xiao Meiqin’s appointment as vice president can more or less ensure that Tsai Ing-wen’s line can be continued.
U.S. diplomatic circles and Taiwan policymakers are not familiar with Lai Ching-te. Lai Ching-te does not have enough experience in diplomatic cross-strait affairs. Will he really continue Tsai Ing-wen’s line as he said, or will he go back to “pragmatic Taiwan independence” as he said in the past? worker”?
Another major uncertainty is the Legislative Yuan. In the future, the three parties will not be more than half, and legislative work is prone to deadlock, which will limit the new president’s administrative space. From the perspective of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, the biggest concern is that the new presidentโs defense budget and arms purchase policy may be blocked in the Legislative Yuan. This is one of the most critical elements of U.S.-Taiwan relations.
Beijing sends positive signal
In terms of Beijing’s response to the results of Taiwan’s election, most of them have so far repeated the same arguments as in the past, including reaffirming the 1992 Consensus and the one-China principle as the basis for cross-strait interaction, and emphasizing that reunification is inevitable. It also reiterated that Taiwan is an internal matter of China’s internal affairs, opposed to interference from external forces, even opposed to foreign governments including the United States congratulating Taiwan on the election, and opposed to official interactions and cooperation between various countries and Taiwan. Beijing has also stated that it will continue to cooperate with relevant political parties in Taiwan to promote people-to-people exchanges.
In a reaction that was different from the past, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council stated that judging from its vote share, the DPP could no longer represent the majority of public opinion in Taiwan. I think this sentence is a positive signal, indicating that Beijing does not yet believe that the Taiwan issue is out of control. The possibility of cross-strait dialogue in the future is still very low, and the relationship will continue to be cold and peaceful. Beijing will continue to suppress Taiwan’s international space, continue to use “grey zone tactics” to pressure Taiwan, and use ECFA or other tools to pressure Taiwan economically.
Four important time points in the future
The first is the US presidential election in November this year. If Trump is elected, it will definitely bring more instability. Next are Taiwan’s local elections in 2026 and the next presidential election in 2028. The key is whether Lai Qingde will be re-elected. The other is the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2027.
I also visited Beijing before coming to Taiwan to watch the election. My understanding is that Beijing can tolerate Lai Ching-teโs victory this time. The Democratic Progressive Party has been in power for 12 years, but if Lai Ching-te is re-elected in 2028, it may mean that for Beijing The hope for peaceful reunification has become smaller, which may be a problem for cross-strait relations.
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2024-01-23 07:03:43
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