Takaichi‘s “rocket Start” Fuels Calls for Snap Election, But LDP Veterans Warn of Repeat of Ishiba‘s 2024 Failure
TOKYO – A surge in approval ratings for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is promptingโฃ factions within the Liberalโ Democratic Party (LDP) to advocate for a swift dissolution of โthe House ofโข Representatives, believing a snapโ election could restore the party’s lost majority.โ However, seasoned election strategists withinโ the LDP are cautioningโ against such a move, citing historical precedents and warning that โa premature vote could mirror theโค disastrous outcome experienced by โformer Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in โOctober 2024.
The โLDP lost โขits majority in the House of Representatives inโค anโข election held on โOctober 27,2024. While Takaichi’s cabinet enjoys a current high approval rating, some within the party believe capitalizing onโฃ this momentum through an early election is the path to regaining control. This optimism isโฃ counteredโฃ by experienced LDP figures who argue the current support isn’t โgenuine “support” but rather “expectation” – a hopeโ for futureโ change that could quickly evaporate without demonstrable results. โ
According to a veteran LDP election professional,โฃ the high approval rating is โฃbased on anticipation, notโ concrete backing.”Strictly speaking, theโ high approval โrating of the Takaichiโค Cabinetโฃ is not ‘support,’ but ‘expectation.’ There is โan expectation โthat something will be done in the future,or that politics will change.So, if results are not produced, the approval rating will plummet instantly.”
The strategist points toโ Ishiba’s โexperience asโฃ a cautionary โtale. ishiba dissolved the House of Representatives shortly after assuming office last year, despite โฃpreviously โstating he would do so only after debate in the Budget Committee. He bypassed theโฃ committee process and called โขa generalโฃ election, resulting in a “crushing defeat.” Ishiba himselfโ later expressed regret, calling the decision “very painful.” โ”If Prime Minister Takaichi decides โขto dissolve โฃthe House of Representatives early without producing anyโ results, she will end up going in the same footstepsโค as Mr.ishiba,” โthe election professional warned.
Three key factors are identifiedโข as rendering a successful majority regainโ through early dissolution a “paper โtheory.”