TOKYO — The U.S.-Japan alliance is undergoing a fundamental shift, moving toward a more transactional relationship as the United States, under President Donald Trump, experiences a decline in its global influence, according to Joshua Walker, president and CEO of the Japan Society. Walker spoke to reporters at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan on Friday, February 13, 2026.
Walker characterized the current moment as a critical juncture for the alliance, requiring a “reimagining” of its core tenets. He argued that the U.S.’s diminishing “soft power” – its ability to influence through cultural and diplomatic means – is coinciding with a rise in Japan’s own cultural and economic standing. Political polarization and domestic instability within the United States, coupled with the Trump administration’s “America First” policies, are contributing to this decline, he stated.
Conversely, Walker highlighted Japan’s increasing soft power, driven by a sense of “quiet confidence,” political stability, and the global popularity of its cultural exports, including anime and video games. This shift, he explained, places Japan in a complex position as it navigates relations between the U.S. And China.
“It’s not that the alliance is going to be over — it’s that the alliance needs to be reimagined for the future, and that the alliance is not simply the president and prime minister, or Washington and [Tokyo],” Walker said. He advocated for a stronger focus on bolstering ties between the private sectors of both countries and fostering people-to-people connections, alongside Japan’s continued development of its self-defense capabilities.
Walker drew parallels to the situation in Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of deterrence. “As Ukraine has demonstrated, even if you’re one-tenth the size of your adversary, with the right heart, with the right passion, with the right equipment, you can resist,” he said. This sentiment comes as Washington is reportedly pressing Tokyo to increase its defense spending to 5% of its gross domestic product (GDP), a move Walker questioned, citing potential strains on the Japanese economy.
“I consider there’s going to have to be a creative way to solve this, but I don’t think that we’re going to conclude up at just 2%,” Walker stated. “I think it is going to have to be higher, but I think 5% might be a bridge too far.” Japan’s current defense spending is around 2% of GDP.
Walker also cautioned against the possibility of Japan being marginalized should the U.S. And China forge a stronger bilateral relationship, a scenario that has been a long-standing concern for Japanese policymakers since President Richard Nixon’s historic opening to China in the 1970s. Despite these concerns, Walker expressed optimism about Japan’s future, citing its growing soft power and global standing.
“But I think given the soft power of Japan, given the global standing of Japan, I’m optimistic about the future, even though I’m worried about the geopolitical stability,” he said.