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Analysts speaking to Sky News Arabia believe that Nasrallah’s speech came to emphasize staying away from direct confrontation with Israel, for fear of opening a wide front for military operations that Beirut cannot bear at this time.

What Nasrallah said?

• In his speech, which lasted for about 90 minutes, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah said, “Our calculations are correct in the war with Israel,” explaining that if Israel were to think about waging a war against Lebanon, the fighting would be without borders or rules and would have a high cost.
• Nasrallah confirmed that Hezbollah and the rest of the factions in the region make their own decisions, and Iran did not ask the Houthis to open a front in the Red Sea, nor did Hezbollah ask Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
• He added: “So far, we are fighting on the front with calculations, so there are sacrifices, but if the enemy thinks of waging a war against Lebanon, then our fighting will be without limits, controls, and ceilings. We are not afraid of war and we are ready for it.”
• The Secretary-General of Hezbollah went on to say: “The war with us will be very costly. If the war is launched against Lebanon, the Lebanese national interests require that we take the war to the end without restrictions.”
• Regarding the killing of Al-Arouri, Nasrallah said: “Yesterday’s crime was great… This crime will not remain without response and punishment, and between us and you is the field, the days and the nights.”
• Nasrallah considered that Israel’s deterrence capability was “collapsing” after the Hamas attack, stressing that Israel would not be able to achieve its war goals in Gaza.

Hezbollah equation

In turn, Lebanese writer and political analyst Asaad Bishara, in an interview with Sky News Arabia, believes that “the speech of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah is an extension of previous speeches since last October 7, in which he expressed a clear equation, that Iran does not want war and wants to avoid it because I was intimidated and coaxed by the United States, so I stopped supporting Gaza directly, and contented myself with supporting fronts to warm up the region and nothing more.”

He added: “Nasrallah’s speech comes in this context, because the model that Hezbollah created after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation is to follow a confrontation through skirmishes, provided that it is controlled by red lines that cannot be crossed.”

Bishara explained: “The entire word can be summed up in one sentence: Iran and its tools in the region are deterred. Otherwise, they are nothing more than an attempt to sell illusions.”

Speech below high expectations

From Beirut, professor of international relations and foreign policy, Khaled Al-Azzi, explained, “Everyone believed that Nasrallah would issue a seismic speech while announcing a violent response against Israel, especially since Al-Arouri was killed in his security square. This is a provocative message from Israel to push Hezbollah into a direct confrontation.” “.

Al-Ezzi pointed out that “the speech did not meet the high expectations since Tuesday evening, but he nevertheless confirmed that the response would be kept in a timely manner.”

He added, “The most important thing mentioned in the speech is the way in which Nasrallah delivers the speech. He was calm and not tense, and he discussed in simple ways, as if he was trying to emphasize his last two speeches at the beginning of October 7, when he appeared twice and confirmed that Lebanon is a supportive front for what is happening in Gaza.” “It is not a direct line of confrontation.”

The professor of international relations confirmed, “Nasrallah stressed the readiness for confrontation, but he will not go about it as the Israelis want it. He determines the time and place and does not want to be dragged into the tense situation that Israel is trying to push towards opening the fighting wide.”

In Al-Ezzi’s opinion, the speech made an important point by emphasizing the freedom of decisions taken by the party and all arms of the resistance away from the central decision in Iran, and therefore there is independence in what each party of the resistance does according to what it deems appropriate.

He concluded his speech by saying, “Nasrallah fears a direct confrontation that might lead to painful strikes from Israel.”

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2024-01-04 12:03:24