Ismail Haniya

The stage is set for a retaliatory military operation against the Israeli regime following the assassination of Hamas Politburo leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran on Wednesday.

Lieutenant Ivan Kesic

A series of statements by Iranian leaders, including Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), indicate that the regime must prepare for severe and unprecedented punishment.

Haniya was killed along with his bodyguard in a terrorist attack in the Iranian capital early Wednesday. He was in Tehran to attend the inauguration ceremony of President Pezeshkian.

The attack came just hours after Israel killed Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, in an airstrike on a residential area in Beirut’s southern suburbs, which also killed an Iranian military adviser and some civilians.

Following the attack on Haniya, Iran called on the UN Security Council to take immediate and decisive action, describing the attack as a “serious violation of Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and a “flagrant violation of the basic norms and principles of international law.”

In a letter to the world body, Amir Said Iravani, Iran’s permanent ambassador to the UN, stressed the country’s right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter.

“This terrorist and rogue regime and its accomplices are responsible. The Islamic Republic of Iran will not hesitate to exercise its inherent right to self-defence, enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter, to respond decisively and swiftly,” he said.

In a statement released on Sunday, the IRGC said the attack was carried out with a “short-range projectile” with a warhead of about 7kg fired from outside Haniya’s residence in northern Tehran.

How will retaliation unfold?

There is an intense and lively debate in military and political circles about the nature of Iran’s response to the terrorist attack on Haniya and the type of weapons that might be used.

Iran has a huge arsenal of long-range precision weapons, as it has demonstrated in recent years against regional terrorist strongholds and with direct attacks against the Zionist entity in April.

The country possesses a vast arsenal of ballistic, near-ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles – by far the largest in the region and one of the four largest in the world – as well as some of the most advanced models of loitering munitions, also in colossal quantities.

Long-range ballistic missiles designed specifically for retaliation against the Zionist regime include Shahab-3, Qadr-110, Fayr-3, Ashura, Seyil, Emad, Qiam-1, Rezvan, Khorramshahr and Jeibar, while relatively smaller ballistic missiles include Dezful, Jeibar Shekan and Hach Qasem.

The first group of ballistic missiles has a range of 1,000 to 2,500 kilometers and a warhead of 700 to 1,500 kilograms, while the second group has a range of 1,000 to 1,500 kilometers and mostly carries a half-ton warhead.

Some of them can also carry multiple warheads, each capable of targeting different targets, and some are equipped with submunition dispensers to attack wide areas such as air bases.

This means that Iran is capable of attacking Zionist targets from any base or ballistic site throughout the country, and its large payload is equivalent to that of the most powerful bunker-busters and can penetrate hardened targets protected by several meters of concrete.

New to Iran’s missile arsenal are the precision-guided Fattah hypersonic missiles with a terminal speed of Mach 13 to 15, and the new version of the Fattah-2 glider, both of which are untouchable by existing air defense systems.

In addition, the final stages of these models also have hypersonic speeds, from Mach 5 to 12, making them difficult for enemy systems to intercept, as demonstrated by Operation True Promise in April.

Iran’s long-range cruise missiles include the Soumar, Meshkat, Ya-Ali, Hoveyzeh, Abu Mahdi, Paveh, Talaiyeh and Qadr-474, while its long-range loitering munitions (kamikaze drones) include the Ababil, Arash, Shahed-131, Shahed-136 and Shahed-238.

Iran also possesses a large fleet of warplanes and drones capable of carrying various bombs and air-to-ground missiles, but past experience shows that the disposable weaponry mentioned above is preferred for retaliatory operations of this kind.

In the April operation against Israel, Iran did not use the most powerful ballistic missiles or loitering munitions, but still managed to successfully hit Israeli airbases with Heibar Shekan missiles and attacked numerous Israeli, American, British and French aircraft in intercepting Shahed-136 kamikaze drones.

In that operation, the main objective of the small, cheap and slow kamikaze drones with 50 kg warheads was not to cause damage, but to burden radar systems in a simultaneous attack with more powerful missiles.

An hour of flight for modern jet aircraft and their air-to-air missiles, or air defense missiles, costs several times more than kamikaze drones, so successfully shooting down swarms represents a loss in profitability.

Brigadier General Amir Ali Hayizade, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Division, said that only 20 percent of the originally planned weapons were used in Operation True Promise, but the enemies had to mobilize everything at their disposal to counter them.

This time, for the announced new attack on the Zionist entity, it is possible to see newer models of kamikaze missiles and drones or those relatively older models in greater numbers.

This time, the targets could be new, as the Ramon and Nevatim air bases were attacked in April, when warplanes took off from there to attack the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

Since the latest terrorist attack in Tehran was probably carried out by Zionist intelligence agents, the headquarters of Israeli spy organizations are potential targets.

These headquarters, unlike the two air bases mentioned above, are not located in uninhabited desert regions, but in the densely populated metropolitan area of ​​Tel Aviv, where half of the population of the Zionist entity lives.

Other likely targets include military bases, vital industrial infrastructure, ports or regime buildings, including in the areas of Tel Aviv, Haifa and other major cities in the occupied territories.

Due to the high sophistication and precision of Iranian missiles, the only danger to ordinary settlers in the occupied territories is the remnants of their own interceptor missiles, whether successfully shot down or unsuccessfully.

Warnings from Iran

On Wednesday, Ayatollah Khamenei warned the Israeli regime of a “harsh response” to the assassination of a “dear guest”: the leader of the Hamas resistance movement.

“The criminal and terrorist Zionist regime martyred our beloved guest in our homeland and left us heartbroken, but it also prepared the ground for a harsh punishment for itself,” the Leader said.

“He was not afraid to embrace martyrdom in the way of God and save the servants of God, but we consider it our duty to avenge his blood in this bitter and horrible incident that took place in the territory of the Islamic Republic,” he said.

President Pezeshkian, in a meeting with Jordan’s top diplomat Ayman Safadi on Sunday, described Haniya’s killing as a “great crime” that he said “will not go unanswered.”

The IRGC said in a statement that the terrorist attack was “planned and executed” by Israel with the support of the US government, warning that the Zionist regime will receive “severe punishment at the appropriate time, place and manner.”

IRGC Commander-in-Chief General Hosein Salami has strongly warned the Israeli regime about the consequences of the recent killings in Tehran and Beirut.

The perpetrators, he said, “should expect holy fury, harsh vengeance and retaliation from the devoted, resolute and determined mujahideen of the various fronts of the regional Resistance.”

On Friday, Ali Baqeri Kani, acting foreign minister, said Iran will certainly exercise its inherent and legitimate right to punish the “Zionist criminal gang” for its terrorist attack.

Baqeri made the remarks during a phone call with EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell, stressing that the Israeli regime’s terrorist act, in addition to violating Iran’s territorial integrity and national sovereignty, has endangered regional and international peace and stability.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Sunday that Iran’s “crushing and intelligent response” to the Israeli regime and the United States will make them regret the killing.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon has announced the deployment of additional aircraft and warships to the Persian Gulf region, as well as 4,000 additional Marines and sailors amid rising tensions.