Is This Iran’s Defining Moment?
That question always lingers during mass protest movements: Will real change occur,or are these merely temporary outbursts of public anger? Usually,it’s the latter. But sometimes – Egypt in 2011, Ukraine in 2014, Sudan in 2019, Sri Lanka in 2022 – a pivotal moment arrives, leading to regime change and the beginning of something new, though not always improved.
That’s the question surrounding Iran’s recent intense protests, which began in late December. While the outcome remains uncertain,it’s possible to assess what’s diffrent this time compared to previous unrest,such as the 2022 uprising following the death of a young woman in police custody. The regime survived that challenge, but what about now?
What’s New with These Protests?
several key factors distinguish these protests from previous ones. The Iranian economy has deteriorated, with runaway inflation causing widespread hardship.The government acknowledged these grievances and offered payments to citizens, but the amount – approximately $7 a month – was so minimal it seemed to fuel further anger.
Iran also faces increased external threats. The “Axis of Resistance,” a network of allies and proxies,has weakened in Lebanon and Syria. Moreover, former President Donald Trump, along with Israel, conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites last summer and continues to threaten further military action.
This week, iran appeared to step back from previous threats of executing protesters, likely due to fears of U.S. military intervention, even while continuing its brutal suppression of demonstrations.
Daniel Sobelman, a professor at Hebrew University in Jerusalem specializing in iran’s regional deterrence strategy, argues these factors create a highly vulnerable regime.
internet shutdowns have made verifying death tolls challenging. However, reports indicate government forces are firing on unarmed protesters. A senior Iranian health ministry official, speaking anonymously, estimates around 3,000 people have been killed nationwide since the protests began.
What Hasn’t Changed?
Historically, regimes frequently enough fracture internally before collapsing. Key power brokers, like the security services, may abruptly withdraw support, leading to the government’s downfall.
Currently, there’s little evidence of such fracturing within Iran.Mona Tajali, a visiting scholar at Stanford University studying Iranian politics, notes a lack of a clear fissure within the security apparatus.
While some lower-level Basij militia members have reportedly refused to fire on protesters, these instances appear anecdotal and don’t indicate a broader split or defection from the regime.
Furthermore, carrying out mass killings of demonstrators can incentivize loyalty to the regime, as those responsible fear prosecution or retribution from a successor government. Reports of mass shootings suggest a notable portion of the security forces still feel compelled to support the theocracy.
There’s also no indication that protesters currently possess the economic leverage to force significant concessions or regime change. Unlike South Africa’s anti-apartheid movement, which leveraged the economic elite’s dependence on black labor, Iran’s protests haven’t significantly impacted key industries like oil and gas.
While bazaar merchants are actively involved in the protests, their economic influence appears limited compared to the energy sector.
Ultimately, while mass protests in Iran could still trigger sudden political changes, the more significant question is what will unfold in the medium and long term.The regime’s brutal crackdown won’t resolve the underlying grievances fueling the demonstrations. The country’s regional vulnerabilities persist, and another trigger for unrest is certain – whether in days, months, or years.