internationality

More than 50 countries around the world will hold important elections in 2024, and more than half of the world’s population will go to vote. The Associated Press report pointed out that the number of citizens exercising their right to vote may not be purely good news, as even the most powerful democracies will be tested and leaders with authoritarian tendencies will become more powerful.

Publish time: 10/01/2024 – 15:41

19 minutes

From Russia, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom to India, El Salvador, and South Africa, presidential and legislative campaigns have an outsized impact on human rights, the economy, international relations, and prospects for peace in a turbulent world. In some countries, voting is neither free nor fair. In many countries, restrictions on opposition candidates, exhausted voters and the potential for manipulation and disinformation have made the fate of democracy front and center in campaigns.

According to reports, the possible competition between US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump looms large; Trump’s victory in November may be the biggest uncertainty in the world. However, Bronwen Maddox, director of the London think tank Chatham House, said that some high-stakes votes before then will also measure the “dissatisfaction, impatience, unease” of voters in various countries.

Taiwan

Taiwan’s presidential election and the election of the 113-member Legislative Yuan will be held on Saturday (January 13) under intense pressure from China. The results of this election are important to much of the Asia-Pacific region and the United States. Beijing has once again threatened to use force to annex the self-governing island it considers its own territory, describing the election as a choice between war and peace. None of the three major presidential candidates has expressed willingness to test China’s resolve by declaring Taiwan’s independence.

Still, Lai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party candidate who currently serves as Taiwan’s vice president, has pledged to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses, and his victory could escalate cross-strait tensions. The opposition Kuomintang is seen as more willing to accept Beijing’s attitude than the Democratic Progressive Party.

The vast majority of Taiwan’s 23 million people support maintaining Taiwan’s de facto independence through autonomy. As a result, domestic issues such as housing and health care could play a decisive role in the presidential campaign.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the world’s longest-serving female leader, won a fourth term on Monday in elections boycotted by opposition parties and marred by violence. Hasina’s Awami League party was re-elected with a low turnout of 40%, but a crackdown on dissent risks triggering political unrest.

India

India, the world’s most populous country, is due to hold general elections in mid-2024 that could give Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the right-wing Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party a third consecutive term. To his supporters, Modi has cleaned up decades of corruption and transformed India into an emerging global power. Critics say that under his leadership, Hindu nationalist attacks on the press and free speech, as well as attacks on religious minorities, have become more brazen.

El Salvador

Another leader seeking to retain power is El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, who has won widespread support since using emergency powers to crack down on ultra-violent street gangs. Members of the Supreme Court appointed by the party approved Bukele’s candidacy on February 4 despite the fact that the constitution bars a president from serving two consecutive terms. While foreign governments have criticized the suspension of certain civil rights, Bukele is not expected to face serious competition.

Mexico

Mexico will elect its first female president on June 2 – Claudia Schein, former mayor of Mexico City and protege of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador Baum, or former opposition senator Xochitl Galvez. The winner will govern a country where drug-related violence is feared and the military’s influence is growing.

Indonesia

Voters in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest democracy, will choose President Joko Widodo’s successor on February 14. Opinion polls show a tight race between right-wing nationalist Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and the ruling party candidate Ganjar Pranowo, the former Central Java governor. The competition is close.

Subianto’s running mate is the son of outgoing leader Widodo, fueling speculation of an impending dynasty. The Associated Press noted that whichever one ultimately wins would mark a continuation of the corrupt politics that have dominated Indonesia since the end of the Suharto dictatorship in 1998.

Pakistan

Pakistan’s February 8 parliamentary election is also contested by well-known politicians under the watchful eye of the country’s powerful military. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, a popular opposition figure, is jailed and election officials prevent him from running.

His rival, three-time prime minister and Pakistan Muslim League leader Nawaz Sharif, was allowed to contest the election after his corruption conviction was overturned. Also running is the Pakistan People’s Party, led by former Foreign Minister Bravar Bhutto Zardari.

Analysts say the election could produce a shaky government. The vote could be delayed due to a sharp deterioration in relations with Taliban-controlled neighboring Afghanistan and deadly attacks on Pakistani security forces.

European Parliament elections

Populism is rising in Europe as the continent experiences economic instability and mass immigration from elsewhere. June elections for the EU’s 27-nation parliament will show whether traditional parties can defeat populist rivals, many of whom are skeptical of providing military support to Ukraine.

Some national elections last year produced mixed signals: Slovakia elected pro-Russian populist Prime Minister Robert Fico, but Polish voters replaced the conservative government with a coalition led by centrist Donald Tusk.

Mujtaba Rahman of political consulting firm Eurasia Group predicts that the upcoming European Parliament elections will not produce a populist majority, but “compared to the last vote in 2019, Centrists will lose ground.”

U.K.

In former EU member Britain, populism manifested itself in the 2016 Brexit referendum and the tumultuous tenure of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. This year’s British general election will pit the ruling Conservative Party against the centre-left Labor Party. Labor leads the polls and is seeking to return to power after 14 years.

Challenges facing African democracy

According to the Associated Press, climate change, food supply disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine and the influence of China and Russia are all factors reshaping the continent.

Since 2020, military coups have occurred in eight West African countries, including Niger and Gabon in 2023.

Senegal

Senegal is seen as a bastion of stability in the region. The country’s February 25 elections are seen as an indicator of its political resilience, with current President Macky Sall set to step down.

Supporters of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko accuse the government of trying to prevent him from running through a series of legal cases that have sparked deadly protests. Eurasia Group analyst Tochi Eni-Kalu said the presidential election could “mark a return to the normalcy of previous years or mark a lasting shift in politics towards more volatility”.

South Africa

In South Africa, legislative elections will be held between May and August against a political backdrop of a struggling economy, severe power outages and an unemployment rate of nearly 32%. Overcoming voter disillusionment will be a challenge for the long-dominant African National Congress (ANC).

The ANC has held the presidency and parliamentary majority since the end of the country’s racist apartheid regime in 1994, but the formerly respected organization won less than half of the vote in 2021 local elections.

If support falls below 50%, the party will need to form a coalition to ensure lawmakers re-elect President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Sudan

South Sudan, the world’s youngest country, plans to hold its first long-delayed elections in December. The vote would be an important milestone, but in the current circumstances could be fraught with danger and prone to failure.

Nicholas Haysom, the head of the U.N. mission in the country, told the Security Council last month that voter registration details, security plans and methods to resolve disputes were among the elements needed to ensure “free elections that are considered credible and acceptable.” . Citizens of South Sudan. “

Russia

The question of who will win Russia’s presidential election in March has been answered, with President Vladimir Putin facing only token opposition as he runs for a fifth term. His main rivals are in jail, in exile or even dead, while a politician who called for peace in Ukraine has been disqualified.

belarus

A similar situation is unfolding in Belarus under President Alexander Lukashenko. On February 25, the country is expected to hold its first parliamentary election since Lukashenko’s government suppressed protests against the Putin ally’s disputed 2020 re-election. Thousands of opponents were jailed or fled the country.

‘Democracy still has appeal’

Bronwen Maddox, director of the London think tank Chatham House, said that despite its problems, democratic ideals still have broad appeal, even for authoritarian leaders. “The fact that they chose to hold an election shows that they see the value in claiming a free vote,” he argued.

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2024-01-10 14:41:12