Europe Braces for Disorder, But Not Full-Scale Civil War

Growing Tensions Differ From U.S. Political Divide

While discussions of civil war frequently dominate American political discourse, a similar, though distinct, anxiety is rising in Europe. Experts suggest the continent faces a heightened risk of widespread unrest, but a complete breakdown of order remains unlikely, differing from the scenarios often predicted for the United States.

A Shift in Warning Signals

Historically, concerns about societal collapse in the U.S. have often originated from liberal voices warning about the dangers of populism. In Europe, however, the alarm is more frequently sounded by conservatives, who point to challenges in integrating immigrant populations and a perceived erosion of national identity. For years, figures on the French right and within the French military have cautioned about impending conflict stemming from assimilation failures.

The novelist Michel Houellebecq even imagined a future in his work, “Submission,” where this conflict is averted by a surprising turn of events. Recently, similar debates have emerged in Britain, sparked by an essay from military historian David Betz, arguing that multicultural Britain is fracturing. This idea was further amplified by Dominic Cummings, a key architect of Brexit, who warned of growing fears among British elites regarding potential violence from both nativist and radicalized immigrant groups.

Differing Dynamics

When considering the possibility of civil strife in America, several factors mitigate the risk: a lack of clear geographical divisions, diminishing racial polarization, and a generally comfortable economic situation. However, the European landscape presents a different picture. Tensions between established populations and newcomers are prevalent, and ethnic and religious differences often run deeper than in the U.S. There’s more visible cultural separation within immigrant communities in cities like Paris and Marseille compared to those in American urban centers.

Despite successfully keeping populist movements from gaining power, British and French governments have increasingly resorted to authoritarian measures, such as restricting free speech. This approach, while intended to maintain order, has simultaneously eroded their legitimacy among discontented citizens. According to a 2024 report by the European Council on Foreign Relations, public trust in national governments across the EU has declined by an average of 10% since 2019 (ECFR, 2024).

Reasons for Caution

Despite these concerns, many of the factors that lessen the likelihood of civil war in the U.S. also apply to Western Europe. The continent remains relatively affluent and aging, and while there’s a propensity for rioting, organized, large-scale violence is less common. Furthermore, no clear faction, whether on the right or left, is actively pursuing violent revolution as a primary goal.

Aris Roussinos, a British writer, offers a nuanced perspective, suggesting that the most probable scenario involves “outbursts of violent disorder” rather than a complete collapse of governmental authority.

“the most likely near-future scenarios involve increasing “outbursts of violent disorder” but not the kind of collapse of central government authority, complete with ethnic cleansing and refugee flows, that the language of “civil war” implies.”

—Aris Roussinos, Writer

Using the term “civil war” to describe increased rioting and sporadic acts of terrorism can be misleading, evoking historical conflicts that don’t accurately reflect the current situation. Just as the chaotic decades of the 1960s and 70s in America didn’t constitute a civil war, modern France’s history of protests and riots doesn’t necessarily indicate an ongoing state of civil war.

Ultimately, navigating a more unstable future likely means adapting to a more chaotic landscape as fellow citizens, rather than engaging in widespread armed conflict.