Uganda‘s Certain Election, Uncertainโค Future
Yoweri Museveni is poised toโ win aโ sixth term as Uganda’s president, but the โelectionโฃ doesโ little โฃto resolve the central question facing the nation: what comes after his decades-long rule? While the presidential vote is widely considered a foregone conclusion, a quiet butโ notable power shift is underway within Uganda’s โฃpolitical and military structures, centeredโฃ around the potential succession of his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
For years, Muhoozi, a general in the Ugandan army, was โคpublicly associated with โambitions of conqueringโฃ political leadership, even openly discussing taking โthe capital, Nairobi. Though, in recent months, he has adopted a noticeably restrainedโ public profile, a move widely interpreted as a strategic decision to avoid appearing to โขchallenge his father during the current campaign.
Despite โthis public silence,โ Muhoozi’s influence is demonstrably growing. Loyalists have been steadily promoted through the ranks of the military, while โขveteran figures from the original โข1980s guerrilla movement that brought Museveni to power have been increasingly sidelined. These personnel โchanges are โขviewed as purposeful signals indicatingโ a carefully orchestrated transition occurring within theโ military, bypassing open โparliamentary debate.
the succession process isn’t limited to theโ armedโ forces. Equally importent, though less visible, is โฃthe maneuvering โฃwithin Uganda’s rulingโ National Resistance Movement (NRM). elections โขfor the NRM’s Central Executive Committee (CEC), the party’sโฃ highest decision-making body, reveal the true โขdynamics of power in Uganda.Positions on the CEC grant access to museveni and,consequently,to the patronage โคnetwork โ- contracts,appointments,and favors – that โunderpins the regime,as well as influence over the future transition.
This year’s CEC elections were particularly contentious, reportedly involving significant financial incentives. โฃReports indicate bribes ranged from $260โ to $1,300 per delegate, with candidates also offering jobs for family members,โ business opportunities, and evenโค international travel in exchange for โsupport. In one highly contested vote, delegates were reportedly transported to hotels both โwithin Kampala and neighboring countries, ostensibly to secure their votes and shield them from rival bidders. These contests, โthough internal to theโค party, are crucial in determining who will be best positioned โขto exert influence in a post-Museveni uganda.
Museveni’s regime, like many long-standing autocratic systems, โคnow primarily competes with itself rather โthan external โขopposition.Elections are less about โdemonstrating legitimacy and more about carefully managing the distribution of resources โandโค maintaining stability within the โexisting power structure.
However, thisโข structure is showing signs of strain. Museveni’s age, coupled withโ his son’s increasing assertiveness and growing economic grievances among โUganda’s young population, creates a volatile environment. The regime’s continued stability hinges on its ability to manage a โtransition of power withoutโฃ losing โขcontrol, and to avoid unleashing the forces of โdissent it has suppressed for decades.
Presenting his son as โคhis successor offersโค Museveni a path to preserving family power while reassuring the military of continuity. However, this strategy carriesโ significant risk. Hereditary succession could fracture the delicate coalition that has sustained โขhis rule, and is viewed by many Ugandans, even within โฃthe NRM, as a form of dynastic overreach.
The outcome of the 2026 election will be pivotal in shaping Uganda’s politicalโข future. A cabinet and key party committees dominated byโข Muhoozi’s allies would โsignal the handover process has begun.Conversely, a lack of such dominance could lead to a prolongedโ period of uncertainty, awaiting a potential crisis to force a reckoning.
Currently, Museveni’s campaign focuses on established promises of “wealth creation,” “peace,” and “stability.” Token loans areโข distributed โto the urban poor,the โคarmy receives new equipment,andโ the elite โฃcompete for access to the inner circle. ugandans widely anticipate thatโข this election will not bring substantive change. The result is predictable;โ the succession remainsโ unresolved, casting a shadow of uncertainty over โฃthe country.
