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Fantasy Football Tight Ends: Touchdown Regression Candidates for 2025
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As fantasy football managers gear up for the 2025 season,identifying potential touchdown regression candidates at the tight end position is crucial for draft strategy. T.J. Hockenson of the Minnesota Vikings and Tucker Kraft of the Green bay Packers stand out as players whose touchdown numbers could considerably shift, impacting their fantasy value.
T.J. Hockenson: A Bounce-Back Candidate
T.J. Hockenson’s 2024 season was a statistical anomaly,failing to record a single touchdown despite receiving 62 targets in 10 games. This is a stark contrast to his career trajectory, where he has shown the ability to find the end zone. Actually,Hockenson’s expected touchdowns for 2024 were 4.6, highlighting the significant underperformance [1].
Did You Know? Hockenson’s career-high in touchdowns is six, achieved in both 2020 and 2022.
several factors contributed to Hockenson’s touchdown drought. He only saw one end-zone target the entire season, a sharp decline from his previous average of seven targets and three touchdowns per year in that area. Furthermore, he had just eight total red-zone targets, failing to convert any of his three receptions into scores.
Though, there’s reason to believe Hockenson will rebound in 2025. He was recovering from a severe knee injury sustained at the end of the 2023 season, which likely hampered his performance. Historically, players often experience a return to form in their second year following ACL and MCL injuries. With a fully healthy knee, a consistent target share, and the potential of Minnesota’s offense under quarterback J.J. McCarthy, Hockenson could exceed his career high in touchdowns. his current ADP (Average Draft Position) in the 5th-6th rounds makes him a potential draft value.
Tucker Kraft: Regression Imminent?
On the other end of the spectrum is Tucker Kraft, who significantly outperformed his expected touchdown numbers in 2024. kraft scored seven touchdowns on 70 targets, resulting in a touchdown rate of 10%. This is nearly double the league average and the highest among tight ends with 70 or more targets [2].
Pro Tip: Touchdown rates are frequently enough unsustainable year-to-year, making players with high rates prime candidates for regression.
While Kraft’s 14.1 yards per reception demonstrate his talent, it’s unlikely he’ll maintain