New Equations Accurately Predict Heart Disease Risk Across Diverse Populations, Study Finds
TOPLINE: Groundbreaking research from the American Heart Association reveals that the Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events (PREVENT) equations effectively identify heart problem risk in a large, ethnically diverse group of over 361,000 patients. The study, spanning 8.1 years, tracked 22,648 cardiovascular events and demonstrated consistent performance across various ethnic subgroups.
Why This Matters: Accurate risk assessment is crucial for preventative care.These findings suggest a more equitable tool for identifying individuals who would benefit from early intervention to reduce their risk of heart disease – a leading cause of death [[2]].
The Study: Researchers analyzed data from 361,778 primary care patients (aged 30-79) within the Sutter Health system in Northern California (2010-2023). Participants needed at least two primary care visits and had to have baseline data including cholesterol levels, blood pressure, BMI, kidney function, diabetes status, and smoking history, all while being free of existing cardiovascular disease. Researchers tracked incidents of total cardiovascular disease (CVD), atherosclerotic CVD, and heart failure.Key Findings:
Strong Performance Across Groups: The PREVENT equations showed a C statistic (a measure of accuracy) ranging from 0.79 to 0.85 for total CVD among Asian populations, varying by specific Asian ethnicity (Filipino to Asian Indian). Hispanic subgroups consistently scored between 0.80 and 0.82.
Outperformed Existing Models: PREVENT equations were more accurate than previously used models (pooled cohort equations) in predicting atherosclerotic CVD across all racial and ethnic groups.
Minor Variations: Small differences were observed in performance for atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure among different racial and ethnic groups.
Calibration Insights: The equations tended to slightly overestimate CVD risk for Asian populations but accurately predicted risk for Hispanic individuals.
In Detail: The study highlighted that the PREVENT equations performed well, mirroring results from the original equation advancement and validation. Notably,the equations showed slightly better discrimination of CVD events for Asian and Hispanic participants compared to Black or White participants.
What This Means For You: This research supports the use of PREVENT equations as a valuable tool for healthcare providers to assess cardiovascular risk in a diverse patient population. Early and accurate risk assessment allows for proactive lifestyle changes and medical interventions to prevent heart disease, including addressing risk factors like coronary artery disease and heart valve disease [[1]].
Sources: american Heart Association’s Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events (PREVENT) equations.