Russia-Northโ Korea Alliance Signals Major U.S. Policy Failure on Nuclearโฃ Proliferation
WASHINGTON – A deepening military and technological partnership between Russia and North Korea, culminating in a mutualโ defense treaty andโ reported battlefield โassistance, represents a significant failure of U.S. andโค South Korean policy towardโ Pyongyang,according to a new โฃanalysis by โคCipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani. the alliance,โฃ solidifiedโค throughout 2024, โขunderscores the ineffectiveness โคof โคdecades-long โstrategies of “containment โand โฃdeterrence” and “strategic patience.”
In Juneโ 2024,โค Russianโ President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang and โคsigned a mutual defense โคtreaty with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un,โ formalizing a “Strategic Thorough Partnership” ratified in Novemberโ 2024. Article 4 โofโค the treaty โstipulates that each nation will provide “military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay” if either is โsubjected to armed invasion.
Evidence suggests this commitment is already manifesting. Inโ October 2024, NATO reported the arrival of Northโ Korean soldiers in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, reportedlyโฃ joining Russian forces inโค the โwar against Ukraine. North Korea is also activelyโข supplying Russiaโ with artillery shells โคand โballistic missiles, a support stream that continues to this day.
in exchange for this aid, Russia is โbelieved to โขbe assisting North Korea with its weapons programs. This likely includes support for its satellite, ballistic missile, and crucially, itsโข nuclear programs – potentially even aiding in the development of โขa nuclear-powered submarine program with โcrucial design elements, materials, and components.
DeTrani argues that โthis escalating alliance should have been anticipated and proactively addressed. “We should have seen movement in this direction and did more to prevent it from happening,” he wrote โin a column โfirst โpublishedโฃ in The Washington times. He โpointsโ to the irony of Russia now seemingly โadvocating for North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, a position โdirectly contradicting its stance duringโ the Six Party Talks -โ where Russia, alongside China, Japan, Southโข Korea, andโฃ the U.S., argued against โฃ Northโ Korean nuclear development.
The growing threat posed by โNorth Korea’s nuclear and โคballistic missileโ capabilities is described asโฃ an “existential threat” โขto the U.S. and โคits allies. DeTrani โemphasizes thatโ past policiesโ haveโค demonstrably failed to curb North Korea’s progress, evidenced by its robust weapons programs and its strengthened ties with both Russia โandโ China.
Looking ahead, DeTrani suggests renewed diplomatic efforts are crucial, specifically advocating for re-engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, potentially โคthrough a return to talks โwith formerโข President Donald Trump.
The situation is increasingly precarious. South Korean President Lee Jaeโข Myung recently warned of a “very dangerous situation” where an accidental clashโ between the Koreas isโ possible at any โฃtime.
Source: Cipher Brief analysis by Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, originally published in The washington Times.