WNBA Tank Watch: Lottery Odds and Player Performances
As the WNBA season unfolds, the focus shifts toward playoff positioning and the looming lottery. Several teams are vying for favorable draft picks, while individual players are making their mark with impressive performances. Let’s examine the current standings and highlight key players.
Lottery Outlook
While no WNBA team actively tanks, the lottery standings determine draft order. The chart below (organized by likely finish) projects team outcomes, factoring in results from the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Strength of schedule and games back from the eighth seed are also key factors.
| Team: | Games back in lottery1: | Games back of No. 8 seed: | Strength of schedule remaining (out of 13)1: | Likely finish: |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | ——— | 4.5 | 3rd-strongest (11th-easiest) | No. 1 or No. 2 lottery odds |
| Los Angeles4 | 0.5 | 3 | 5 | No. 1 or No. 2 lottery odds |
| Chicago2 | 5 | 3.5 | 1 | No. 3 or No. 4 lottery odds |
| Golden State | 4 | -0.5 | 4 | Low playoff seed or No. 3 or No. 4 lottery odds |
| Connecticut3 | 17.5 | 6 | 2 | Worst lottery odds |
| Washington | 9.5 | ——— | 12 | Low playoff seed or No. 4 lottery odds |
2. Minnesota Owns Chicago’s Pick
3. Chicago owns the rights to Connecticut’s pick if the Sun finish worse than the Mercury
4. Seattle owns Los Angeles’ pick
Atlanta Dream’s Shooting Star
Hary Rejected is on pace to be one of the league’s top shooters. The rookie recently made 14 threes in four games on only 19 attempts, boasting a 73.7% success rate. This is the highest mark among all players on that list. Her catch-and-shoot percentage is 65.4%, the best in the league.
Connecticut Sun: Efficiency on Display
Jacy Sheldon is averaging 10.6 points per game over her last eight games, with impressive shooting splits. Her true-shooting percentage is at 74.5%. The names of the players that have had similar offensive streaks, as shown by statistical analysis, are notable offensive players.
Sheldon is not at the point of forcing issues, but she has shown clear improvements. With the Sun being one of the worst teams in the league, she may not be the sole offensive force, but she has the potential to grow. She’s now finishing at over 90% at the rim, a notable jump from the previous year.
Phoenix Mercury’s Performance
The Mercury currently hold a 12-4 record, positioning them second in the WNBA. Their Pythagorean win-loss record is 10-6, a metric that uses point differential to predict future results. Several teams have underperformed their Pythagorean records. Their net rating is over 5.5 points shy of New York’s, but their net rating in games Alyssa Thomas has played is 10.7, which translates fairly close to their actual win-loss.
Washington Mystics: A Comeback Story
In her last seven games, Shakira Austin is averaging 16.1 points with a high true-shooting percentage, along with 8.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and solid defensive stats. After a series of injuries, this season represents a comeback for Austin.
Over her last four games, Austin has averaged 20 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.5 steals. If she stays healthy, this could be a continued leap forward, reflecting the promise she showed before her injuries. The Mystics currently rank 9th in offensive rating, according to StatMuse, which might improve with Austin’s consistent contribution.
The WNBA season is filled with storylines. As the games progress, keep an eye on the lottery standings and the standout performances of the players.