Trade War Looms as **Trump** Considers Tariffs on Brazil

**Lula** faces pressure as **Trump** weighs economic action over **Bolsonaro** investigation.

A potential trade war is brewing between the United States and Brazil. **Donald Trump** is considering imposing tariffs on Brazilian goods in response to what he views as the unfair treatment of former Brazilian President **Jair Bolsonaro**.

**Trump** Considers Brazil Strategy

**Donald Trump** is considering using a strategy similar to the one he employed with China, raising tariffs on Brazilian goods each time **Lula da Silva** increases tariff barriers on products exported from the USA.

In 2025, the U.S. ratcheted up tariffs on China from 10% to 145% between February and April. China responded in kind, increasing tariffs from 10% to 125% during the same period.

That trade skirmish, lasting almost 70 days, saw the U.S. increase tariffs six times, with China mirroring the action on five occasions. Ultimately, a commercial truce was negotiated in Switzerland, resulting in a 30% tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff on U.S. exports.

Differing Circumstances

However, the situation with Brazil is not identical to the one Washington faced with Beijing. **Da Silva** lacks **Xi’s** geopolitical clout, and the core issue driving **Trump’s** potential 50% tariff increase is not easily resolved by the Brazilian president.

**Trump** accuses **Da Silva** of leading a witch hunt against **Jair Bolsonaro**, who is accused of orchestrating a coup attempt. The legal case is currently before Brazil’s Supreme Court, limiting **Da Silva’s** ability to intervene.

**Bolsonaro**, echoing **Trump’s** claims about **Joe Biden**, alleges that **Lula** stole the 2022 election.

**Trump’s** Letter and Demands

In a letter to **Lula**, **Trump** announced the potential tariff increase, stating, “I met and dealt with **Bolsonaro**, and I respected it a lot, Like most other countries. The way in which Brazil treated the former president, a highly respected leader worldwide during his term, including by the United States, It is an international shame. This trial should not be happening. It’s a witch hunt that must end immediately.”

He continued, “due in part to the insidious attacks from Brazil to free elections and the fundamental rights of the freedom of expression of Americans (…) We will charge Brazil a 50% tariff on each and every one of the Brazilian products sent to the United States.”

**Lula’s** Response

**Da Silva** responded to **Trump’s** claims, escalating the geopolitical tension. “Brazil is a sovereign country with independent institutions that will not accept to be controlled by anyone,” **Lula** declared on X.

He added, “The judicial process against those who planned the coup d’etat It is exclusive responsibility for Brazilian justice And therefore, It is not subject to any type of interference or threat that violates the independence of national institutions.”

Following his post, **Lula** announced plans to initiate diplomatic negotiations with the United States and, if necessary, invoke the economic reciprocity law. “If you are going to charge us 50, we will charge you 50,” **Lula** asserted during a television interview.

Stance From Washington

Washington anticipates a formal request from Brasilia to negotiate the tariff increase. However, **Trump** has stated that negotiations must address both tariff levels and the legal proceedings against **Bolsonaro**.

Additionally, the White House told Infobae that **Trump** is considering a 10% tariff increase on products imported by the United States from BRICS nations, including Brazil. Such a move could result in Brazil facing a 60% tariff overall, severely impacting its economy. According to the World Bank, Brazil’s GDP growth is projected to be 2% in 2024, making it particularly vulnerable to external economic shocks (World Bank).

Time Sensitive

**Lula** has three weeks to resolve the political conflict with **Trump**, as the tariff increase is scheduled to take effect on August 1. The ideological gap between the two leaders presents a significant challenge.

Personal rapport is deemed crucial for securing geopolitical agreements with the Republican administration, as evidenced by the relationships of **Javier Milei**, **Benjamin Netanyahu**, and **Nayib Bukele** with the U.S.