Trade Deal Cools Recession Fears
Goldman Sachs Lowers Forecast as U.S.-China Tensions Ease
Optimism is returning to financial markets as a newly affirmed trade agreement between the United States and China prompts Goldman Sachs to reduce its prediction for a U.S. recession. The revised outlook reflects diminishing anxieties surrounding escalating tariffs and their potential economic impact.
Agreement Details Emerge
Negotiators from Washington and Beijing recently reached a framework agreement addressing tariff rates. Key components include the removal of Chinese restrictions on rare earth mineral exports and continued access for Chinese students to American universities. This follows concerns sparked by **Donald Trump**’s earlier “Liberation Day” tariffs, which unsettled global financial systems.
BREAKING: U.S. and China reach a framework agreement on trade, including removal of Chinese export restrictions on rare earth minerals and continued access for Chinese students to U.S. universities. Sources tell @Reuters.
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 16, 2024
“Broad financial conditions have now eased back to roughly pre-tariff levels… (and) measures of trade policy uncertainty have moderated a bit following steps toward de-escalation,”
—Goldman Sachs
The shift in sentiment arrives as the U.S. economy shows signs of resilience. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, indicating continued, albeit moderate, economic expansion. BEA First Quarter GDP
Revised Economic Projections
**Goldman Sachs** now estimates a 30% probability of a U.S. recession within the next twelve months, down from a previous forecast of 35%. The firm also increased its 2025 U.S. GDP growth prediction to 1.25% per quarter, a rise from its earlier estimate of 1%. This adjustment is partially based on initial data suggesting a smaller-than-anticipated impact of tariffs on U.S. consumer prices.
While consumer prices increased less than expected in May, analysts anticipate a rise in the coming months due to the ongoing effects of **Trump**’s import tariffs. The brokerage noted that easing trade policy uncertainty contributed to the downward revision of the recession forecast.
The improved outlook suggests a period of relative stability for the U.S. economy, though continued monitoring of inflation and trade dynamics will be crucial in the months ahead.