Fumio Kishida

Three reasons why Fumio Kishida made a surprise visit to Ukraine

On March 22 local time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida concluded his quick visit to Ukraine. Fumio Kishida’s visit was kept secret until the last minute. Kishida’s trip is also a rare exception. According to the practice since the 30th National Congress of Japan in 1958, the Japanese Prime Minister and cabinet ministers need to report to the House of Representatives and the House of Representatives in advance and obtain approval when they visit abroad during the session of the National Assembly. However, the Japanese ruling and opposition parties have previously agreed that in order to ensure the safety of visiting Ukraine, information security and confidentiality should be given top priority, and post-event reports are allowed.

Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, Japan has always taken a stance of resolute support for Ukraine. There are three reasons: First, as a loyal ally of the United States and a member of the Western camp, Japan needs to keep a high degree of synchronization with the entire Western camp headed by the United States. In cooperating with the United States to join multiple rounds of sanctions against Russia and providing various forms of assistance to Ukraine.

Secondly, for the consideration of resolving the four northern islands issue between Russia and Japan in the future. In the past, Japan had hoped that improved relations between Russia and Japan would help resolve this issue. However, with the changes in the international and regional security situation, especially the intensification of the confrontation between Russia and the United States, supporting Ukraine to contain and weaken Russia in order to recover the four northern islands may become a new strategic option for Japan.

Third, Japan puts itself at the forefront of opposing Russia, thereby standing on the commanding heights of the so-called “international morality”. Create an international image of Japan maintaining the international order and presiding over “justice”, and take the opportunity to expand its international influence. In the long run, this move will also help Japan seek a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the leaders of the G7, known as the “club of developed countries”, have visited Ukraine one after another to show their firm support for Ukraine. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Ukraine three times during his tenure as prime minister. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Draghi have all visited Ukraine. After US President Biden visited Ukraine, Kishida Fumio became the only head of the G7 who did not visit Ukraine after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis. The support of Ukraine by the heads of other Western countries will inevitably prompt the Kishida government of Japan to take more “active” measures on this issue. Kishida’s unconventional trip to Ukraine fully demonstrated the eagerness of the Japanese side.

Japan is the rotating presidency of the current G7 Summit, and Fumio Kishida’s hometown Hiroshima will host the G7 Summit in 2023. Japan will also reportedly invite South Korea, Australia, Vietnam and India to participate. If the meeting can be held as scheduled, it will undoubtedly help to consolidate the ruling foundation of the Kishida government and also help expand Japan’s international influence. Moreover, the situation in Ukraine and the “shaken international order” may be included in the agenda of the meeting by the Japanese side. Japan’s move is precisely to shape its image as a “defender of the international order”. Fumio Kishida’s quick visit to Ukraine for field “investigation” and meeting with Zelensky is actually a warm-up and preparation for the upcoming G7 summit.

In a joint news conference with Zelensky during his visit to Kiev, Kishida reiterated his support for Ukraine and announced that Japan would provide $30 million through NATO funds to help Ukraine purchase non-lethal equipment. A series of actions by the Japanese side have been highly praised by the Ukrainian side. Zelensky called Kishida “a really strong defender of the international order and a longtime friend of Ukraine.”

On the whole, the Kishida government has recently taken an all-round attack in the diplomatic field. It is mainly reflected in the strengthening of security cooperation with European countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany, and the realization of the so-called “historic reconciliation” in South Korea-Japan relations. China and other regions continue to invest diplomatic resources and make a series of new policy arrangements.

For Japan, if it fulfills its commitment to aid Ukraine in the next step, it will win the trust and respect from Ukraine and the Western camp, and Japan can use this to gain dual benefits in geopolitics and geoeconomics. The risk is that Japan will become increasingly embroiled in the Ukraine crisis. Japan’s continuous increase in investment in this area may also become a burden on its own economic development, and Japan-Russia relations will inevitably further weaken and regress. Once Japan’s bilateral relations with China, Russia and North Korea in Northeast Asia are fully damaged, it will undoubtedly be detrimental to Japan’s economic revitalization and national security.

（Yang Danzhi, Ph.D., Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Senior Researcher, National Security Research Institute, Renmin University of China）